Yes if they start raising divy and MT divy has to over +4%+ ...There are many good stocks paying 4% in you put your money in big T they are paying 5.2%.....people are looking long term. MT has cleaned our lots of mess and it is going $25...MT is bucking trend to go higher . I would add here..IMHO Mt has been in consolidation for last few weeks and it is ready to Go up. $40 is possible if they regularly raise divy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
MT is at a generational low (or certainly recently it was down around $11-12) It sells for 1/2 book value. 1/3 of sales. 4 times EBITA and an Enterprise value to EBITA ratio of 6! My gosh is this company cheap. It doesn't mean it's going back to $40-50/share anytime soon. This is not a secret company. It's a terrible sector, but the sector will not die and go away...and MT would be the last one to go if it did.
I bought $4 ago. I'm not selling for a while. I think if it just sold at book value...$29/sh that would be fair value.
Steel is in oversupply mode for the next decade. The small highly specialised alloy mills are better investments.
MT got taken for a ride by Wall St and they have no way out. You may see $21 after the next bear cycle stating in 2015.
B.S We'll see $25. - $30. next year sometime provided the Europeans get their act together and start to dig themselves out of the hole they've created. There needs to be a 4 to 6 months of increased demand for durable goods and construction steel to start this stock on it's way. Slowly it will creep up to my target range. Best way to take care of those money problems is sell some steel! I think my estimate is reasonable and is really nothing compared to a high of almost a $100. back in 08 (or was it 09?). I'm really hoping for $40. - 50. in 2014. Just my opinion.
In 2007 the steel producers were basically minting money because of the high price of steel, the price of steel went up on high demand because of the biggest credit bubble in decades, it will be a long time before another such credit bubble will form, we haven't even finished digesting the last one yet.
IMO steel prices are not likely to rise from now to next year enough for the price of MT to rise as much as you expect.
I work in the estimating department of a manufacturer of steel products and I know of no one who is predicting a significant rise in steel price for the coming year.