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Walter Energy, Inc. Common Stoc Message Board

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jul 10, 2013 5:41 PM Flag

    New Short Interest = 24.16 M shares (39% of Float)

    The SI as of June-28th, 2013

    Float Size = 62 M
    Previous Period SI = 20,308,681
    Current Shares Short = 24,156,308
    Increase in SI = 3,847,627
    % Increase = 18.9%
    SI as % of Float = 38.9%

    During my last SI post, I suggested that I would not be surprised if the SI went up by 4M-5M shares and bingo... I was right on target!

    WLT just needs some sort of catalyst to get the the short squeeze going. 40% seems like a pretty big SI and would like to see the price stabilize and daily trading volume go down, there by increasing the 'Days to Cover'.

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    • Lots of shorts will lose their money at this level... The horse is dead already lol..

    • WLT already breaking out of the downtrend...

      When will the covering start?

      Watch these levels....

      1) Take out the June-18th high of 13.93 (Some covering)
      2) Take out the 50 dma @ 15'sh level (More covering)
      3) Assisted by short covering it should challenge the $20'ish level from May-2013

      If $21 is taken out then clear skies until $28.

      All the above targets are based on the assumption that no further bad news should hit the stock (Downgrades, Management debacles, global growth estimate cuts etc)

    • nice post. Lets get a catalyst!

    • Let me get this straight picker. Are you implying that if it just so happens to be that tomorrow or sometime this week WLT management get off its AS*S and puts out with some positive news, that the large SI will shoot up PPS while all shorts try to cover.

      • 1 Reply to lilihsrunner69n
      • Runner,

        I'm not implying anything about WLT management or any upcoming positive PR...

        40% SI is a like sitting on a pile of Dynamite, but somebody needs to light the fuse (Catalyst to set it off)

        I can speculate on a few possibilities

        1) Better Global outlook for Steel and hence MET coal
        2) Positive PR related to operations or financing by WLT management
        3) Better than expected earnings and guidance, followed by upgrades.
        4) Just purely based on technicals, if WLT manages to get above $13-$13.5 (Ending the downtrend from Feb-13). It looks like it already breaking out the downtrend since May 21 st.
        5) M&A rumors (Always a popular one with WLT)

    • Thanks for sharing. How did you get those specific information?

      • 1 Reply to stoicxphilia
      • All stocks irrespective of the exchanges that they trade in have a "Due Date" (Generally 2nd business day after the "As of Date") by which all Short positions must be submitted. The exchange then compiles the information and makes it available to the public on the "Dissemination Date
        after 4 p.m., ET" based on a "Short Interest Publication Schedule". So, depending on the exchange you might have different sources for the information on dissemination date.

        For WLT (It is registered with NYSE) I use WSJ (Short Interest: NYSE Highlights) data.

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