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Diodes Incorporated Message Board

  • Go_DIO Go_DIO Apr 28, 2000 1:57 PM Flag

    DIO's Capacity Expansion (Part 2)

    Excluding Rosenbergs severence package in Q1-00
    here's some past history on net profit margins which
    will be used to establish a trend that I'll
    extrapolate into the future to calculate profit and
    EPS.

    ______Rev.____NPM___Profit_Shrs__EPS
    Q1-99_$15.6M__4.4%__$0.7M__5.23__.13

    Q2-99_$18.0M__4.6%__$0.8M__5.27__.16
    Q3-99_$21.8M__7.7%__$1.7M__5.41__.31

    Q4-99_$23.2M__10.2%_$2.4M__5.81__.41
    Q1-00_$27.4M__12.3%_$3.4M__6.14__.55

    Q2-00_$30.0M__13.0%_$3.9M__6.30__.62
    Q3-00_$34.0M__13.5%_$4.6M__6.50__.71

    Q4-00_$37.5M__14.0%_$5.3M__6.70__.78
    Q1-01_$43.0M__14.5%_$6.2M__7.00__.90


    For the time being this is my model. I'm allowing for
    modest improvement in margins and an increasing number
    of shares due to stock options. I 'm forecasting Q2
    at .62 and 2000 year end earnings at 2.66. I'm out
    ahead of our analyst on this one. I'll see how I fare
    compared to him over the course of the year. Apply
    whatever P/E you want to these numbers. All I can say is
    it's worth a second mortgage on your house to invest
    in this baby. 2.66 times 25 puts us at $67 by the
    end of year!

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    • Go DIO,

      First of all,I'd like to commend
      you on your contribution,as it involved a lot of
      time.I extrapolated as well,and our figures are
      extremely similar,in fact nearly identical in their
      conclusions.I've been holding since Feb 1,and am extremely
      satisfied with DIO.
      Here's a question for you(or anyone
      else who may be able to shed some light).These
      estimates of forward numbers are based on Diodes-China
      expansion.I'm wondering...Do you know what percentage of DIO's
      revenues come from Diodes China vs Diodes Taiwan? I ask
      this because I'm wondering if our revenue/EPS
      spreadsheets may be failing to include this breakdown in our
      calculations.I'm hoping that someone might have more info than I
      presently do.
      Thanks,

      Sincerely,

      -vl-

      • 1 Reply to vonlumiere
      • vonlumiere,

        Go to Diodes home page on the
        web, proceed to Investor Relations and then look at
        the companies 10K and 10Q. The 1998 10K includes a
        note 11 - Segment Info beginning on page 32 with a
        detailed breakdown of the "Consolidated Sales" between
        Diodes-U.S., Diodes-China and Diodes-Taiwan. I'm not sure I
        totally understand the relationship between them and what
        they mean. However, it would seem to suggest that the
        majority of sales came from Diodes-Taiwan through 1998 by
        an overwhelming amount. I suspect that's changing
        due to the China Expansion that's underway. Anyway
        check it out and tell me what you think.

 
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