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Diodes Incorporated Message Board

  • stockvictor stockvictor Jun 16, 2000 3:19 PM Flag

    Valuations? Recheck time.

    Valuation Recheck Time:

    Considering the
    recent increase, it is time to once again, run the
    numbers to see where DIO sits. For the purposes of this
    exercise, I don't include the added benefits of the new
    expansions, Asian market penetration, and explosive earnings
    and revenue growth. I simply focus on our
    valuations.

    Current DIO Stock Price: $46
    Industry: Electronics and
    Semiconductor

    Trailing P/E: DIO 32.4, Industry: 66.0, DIO Projected
    Share Price: $93.70

    Price/Sales: DIO 3.1,
    Industry 15.8, DIO Share price: $234

    As an added
    bounus, note that the Analyst projected Y2000 P/E is
    19.7. This is also based on Q2 earnings estimates the
    combinded collective of has recognized to be _quite_
    conservative based on what will be announced in July (based on
    contributions of recent expansions in China).

    Prev
    year's quarterly growth is at a raging pace right now
    and will likelycontinue based on the overall
    industry's shortages and DIO's continuous, timely,
    expansions.

    DIO stock value has a looong way to go
    yet.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Thanks for answer,Just as thought. This is a bad
      sign, for reasons I do not know DIO is loosing steam. I
      hope I am wrong but I had this happen to ZOMX. The
      fundementals were strong,stock solit was met with up day then
      dropped like a ton of bricks. I think the short term
      looks better for DIO than it did for zomax but the IBD
      acc/dis. rating dropped from A to B today. This is how it
      starts. Institutions dont panic so easily. Most of the
      other Semis have bounced back some not us. Hanging
      tough with fingers crossed .....CHOW

    • The 3 bulk trades Wednesday were all sell orders.
      The first one was 84.3k shares, followed by 45.8k
      shares, followed by 75.0k shares.

      Looks like we
      bottomed out today (IMO) and will base for a week or two
      in low to mid 30 range before moving up again later
      in the month.

      Best Regards,
      Cengold

    • I know its a long time after your post to reply but I worked OT. Need to know if those were buy or sell programs

    • <EOM>

    • The KEM preannouncement was to the upside.
      OT-Tuffcash congratulations! I have a medal identical to the one Oz gave the tin man. If you post your address, I will mail you one C.O.D.

    • Approx 70% of the volume traded today was due to
      three large bulk trades: 1 trade of 84.3 shares; 1
      trade of 45.8k shares; and 1 trade of 75.0 shares.


      I bought DIOD on June 5th, and have rode from $31
      to $51 back to $31 today. Wow !

      This is a
      good board and I enjoy the posts, particularly r4r4
      and stockvictor.

    • I got that out of my system...<G>. I'm
      still trying to figure out how a diode is integral to
      software companies' hardships or the latest buzz regarding
      a relatively larger supply of tantalum capacitors
      while high end cell phones are lowering in demand
      (still can't figure out that one since Russia isn't
      sending us any more base metal for them from what I've
      read). Guess what, guys; the "cheap" cell phones utilize
      just as many diodes and MOSFETs as the high end ones.
      With the continuous expansion of solid state circuits
      worldwide we're still only at the onset of our fortunes.

      IMHO, the SEC needs to fine tune its requirement that
      analysts identify their positions (and their associates')
      regarding various key components of sectors which are being
      either upgraded or downgraded. I smell a rat in SSB's
      downgrade, especially in light of the timing of the
      downgrade. These talking heads are becoming to the market
      what every U.S. - hating ayatollah in Iran was to U.S.
      foreign policy in the late 70's. And the responses from
      "the market" is becoming identical to the U.S.
      responses then. A flock of swallows flying off in a panic
      every time they hear or think they hear a snap in the
      woods.
      Stockvictor, you KNOW I didn't short DIOD - it's my 'dry
      humor'; all message boards are essentially identical when
      a strong company drops; I just get a little tired
      (and jaded) wasting my time reading posthumous hero
      stories.
      I honestly think that even if Diodes preannounces
      they'll get the bear treatment, e.g., one talking head
      addressing KEM's preannouncement stated that it sold off
      after the preannouncement because "everybody"
      speculated that it preannounced because FUTURE earnings were
      going to decrease. Go figure. And people actually give
      these guys hard-earned money to blow? By the way, if I
      remember correctly KEM went up between 7-9 after the
      preannouncement, FWIW. But no one checks or challenges, so he
      knows he can get away with whatever he feels like
      saying.

    • downgrade:

      "I am downgrading the entire
      Nasdaq. The reasons for this downgrade are:

      Today
      is the day after the July 4 holiday. In five of the
      past 6 years the Summer tech wreck started within 1
      week of July 4. Come to think of it, we probably
      started a few.

      Today is still 2+ weeks away from
      the Large Semi earnings. Sparse good news will be
      announced in the next 2+ weeks. Preannouncements should
      peak early next week. Daily pessimism will increase
      and overwhelm any good news. Downward momentum will
      accelerate.

      I selected Wednesday of the week to downgrade
      because on Thursday mornings on CNBCFN the geriatric "old
      economy" talking heads and
      "I-hate-growth-because-I-was-left-out" experts come out of the woodwork during Stock
      Unselecting Thursday, extolling the wisdom of buying value
      and selling techs in wave after wave. Each
      "I-revere-Warren Buffet-who-missed-the-tech-run" fossil will slam
      unrelentlessly with the "knowing smirk". Tom & the rest of the
      CNBCFN cronies will fan the fire as best they can (while
      carefully redefining GE once again as a value stock until
      the techs run in October). They all know that it is
      much easier to demolish a building than to build one,
      especially on Thursday mornings.

      Q2 is historically
      the weakest quarter of the year for techs. Knowing
      this, I feel that it is safe to downgrade with vague or
      no supporting facts. Hell, I could probably
      downgrade based on gut feeling and I will be correct for
      the next 2 months!

      I know for a fact that the
      swallows (also known as chumps, momentum traders, mindless
      masses) will watch the Nasdaq MMs walk the stocks down as
      they pass large sells to each other or to their side
      accounts, and hysterically panic. By the time the large
      techs actually announce and hold their CCs (IMHO, the
      only real future expectations come in the CCs) in 2
      weeks it will be too late; momentum panic will be king.
      Hey - the MAJORITY elected SWtDD --- TWICE! This is
      like shooting fish in a barrell.

      Volume will
      drop to its nadir within the next four weeks. Low
      volume over time always turns the market
      South.

      Most investors are stupid and lazy. Most of them don't
      know what stocks their mutual funds own or what the
      companies that they buy actually do. It's easier to
      momentum trade a stock advertised on a message board or by
      a talking head on CNBCFN than it is to learn to
      read a balance sheet or look up a Mutual Fund's
      holdings. These "investors" will panic first, and there are
      a LOT of them!

      If I was wrong I will simply
      say that my time horizon was actually longer than was
      interpreted. Eventually, even if it takes 5 years, I will be
      correct. After all, that's the beauty of being a
      pessimist!

      My company and key clients and hedge funds just
      shorted key stocks and bought a shitload of QQQ puts. We
      will flip in early October and then I will change my
      mind again unless (God forbid) I was actually correct
      for once."

    • R4r4,
      If you really were holding 145,000
      shares and made that much money, I am quite impressed
      and happy for you. I believe you are quite a bit
      early here. You believe DIO is going to hit $23 before
      $50? If so then I am loading up again. Remember, DIOD
      is not one of the high flying P/E (60's - 200)
      stocks, we are a stock with a trailing P/E in the
      20's.

      Do you honestly believe DIOD will ever hit $7 1/2
      again? I strongly disagree. Even after this cycle, the
      expansion and Asian market penetration that DIOD has
      successfully nailed this cycle will give us a much stronger
      base than sub $10. Semi's are suffered a knee-jerk
      reaction today and possibly a little overflow into
      tommorrow. DIOD will bounce back very strongly after the
      split (a few trading days) and Q2 numbers (a coupls of
      trading weeks) In my opinion.

    • 145,000 shares. I will buy back at 7 1/4 or
      lower...SEMIs are dead. Tomorrow is "Jack
      Welch-ass-kissers-old-economy-bears" morning on CNBC. DIO will drop 10+ as panic sets
      in after the geriatrics tell us how undervalued KO,
      GE, PG and JNJ are while techs are in fact in a
      depression and are 850% overvalued. Glad I flipped!

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