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Diodes Incorporated Message Board

  • Go_DIO Go_DIO Aug 22, 2000 3:17 PM Flag

    Summer Orders

    I found this little research note on IRF kind of

    NEW YORK, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Banc of America
    Securities on Tuesday said it raised its price target for
    semiconductor maker International Rectifier Corp. (NYSE:IRF -
    news) to $80 per share from $65 per share. Said the
    change is because of "stronger than anticipated
    summertime bookings," which will yield "higher near-term
    results." International Rectifier shares were trading up
    2-13/16 at 59-3/16 on the New York Stock Exchange, below
    their 52-week high of 65-3/8.

    If IRF is
    experiencing "stronger than expected summertime bookings", I
    can't help but wonder if anyone else is. Dah..., let me
    think about that for a moment. Even with all the
    capacity expansion at DIOD, I wouldn't be surprised if
    they don't soon find their $9M expansion sold-out.

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    • See DIOD messages 2151 & 2152 (crammed full of
      facts; not easy to read but fairly accurate)

      TRID messages 9899, 9902, 9903, 9904.

      Yahoo is
      stubborn & I can't post the links directly this morning.
      There is a wealth of recent messages re-TRID, which has
      always had an excellent message board.

      I have
      been looking at fuel cells for about a month now
      (FCEL, SATC, BLDP, PLUG, ENER) but since they mostly use
      natural gas I have been sticking with my n.g. drillers
      and have recently started nibbling on "phase 3" oil &
      gas services.

    • R4R4, take a look at the message I am responding
      to. I am still interested in TRID. Do you have any
      answers to my questions? you can ignore the comments.
      I've been busier than a porcupine in a nudist colony
      as of late and have not had time to do DD on any new
      prospects. I have a wheelbarrow of cash to put into stocks
      right now.

      I'd add more to KEM and DIOD right
      now but it violates my diversification principals
      (OK, I have already violated it for DIOD but I can't
      do so any more- owning more shares of an equity than
      some institutions makes me a bit nervous). Of course,
      I am not in the same ball park as GO_Dio. I hope
      GO_Dio doesn't chose to cash to buy a small country any
      time soon, it could have a material impact on our
      share price. I think he should hold out until he can
      buy Monte Carlo on his DIO holdings ;-)

      for your response.


    • R4r4,
      Yes I have glanced at trid but not
      studied it.

      Unfortunately they have no analyst
      coverage and are pretty small. They certainly haven't had
      41 consecutive profitable Q's like DIOD. They had
      pretty negative cash flow the last 2 years. Being a
      small company on the integration side there is a chance
      they could get hit pretty hard by the component
      crunch. The very same phenom that is helping DIOD and KEM
      with higher margins could cause TRID problems with
      lower margins and lack of availability.

      being said, what is up with the P/E of 2.27. What
      happened in Q3 with $4.94 in earnings followed by a $.14?
      Was there a huge one time payout they received? It
      looks like they have a flat run rate P/E of around 16
      which isn't bad especially if the SONY deal really pans
      out and they can deliver.

    • Hope the number is 60 cents but will take 54+

      golf is great, am in carmel and played pebble beach
      and spyglass. still own amkor and added kem which is
      now in the money for me.

      expect 45 out of
      amkor, 30 out of diodes, and 40 out of kem by year end.

    • Been watching TRID? Bought 2 days ago; got wind
      of the SONY deal before it was posted and figured,
      since it was listed under SONY, TRID would finally get
      some attention. Just a little visibility sometimes
      does this; UMC is doing real well; my P/B=1
      guesstimate value is about 12.5 now. Larger institutions may
      be looking at its balance sheet and may finally
      start to nibble. With this contract it's ALMOST as
      undervalued as DIO, although long term DIO will break out
      again soon.
      There was a buyer today (and a seller
      after hours).

    • R4r4,
      I agree. I would expect the next rate
      change we see from the Fed will be the first of a set of
      easings in a year or two. This cycle of rate hikes is
      done. The last 1/2% hike was the final hike. The
      economy is cooling, the overall market will pull-back
      causing reduced consumer spending as the "stock market
      wealth effect" starts to subside. Energy prices will be
      a rather major problem world-wide even if they do
      not impact the domestic market as Greenspan is
      postulating (I find it hard to believe the US is immune from
      significant energy cost increases). It is still far too early
      to see if this expansion cycle will settle into
      recession or the ever evasive soft landing.

      It just
      makes it a little more challenging and rewarding to
      find good equity investments right now. I'm hoping
      consumer electronics have now become more like necessary
      utilities in our everyday lives which will allow the semi
      suppliers continued growth even if a recession hits.

    • zorb,
      I think our analyst is ultra
      conservative and you're just very conservative. I'm a little
      more optimistic. Given DIOD's guidance we can expect a
      significant step up in sales and earnings for Q3 given the
      $6.5M capacity expansion that came on-line beginning
      with Q3 and given that it's operating at

      My conservative estimate (neither ultra nor very) as
      set forth in message #2812 is based upon Rev. of $38M
      (a $5.4M, 16.5% increase from Q2), a net margin
      improvement to 15%, a 160K increase in shares, which yields
      an EPS of $.60.

      Further upside potential
      comes from the favorable pricing environment that
      exists and the way in which price increases feed the
      bottom line and cause margins to explode.

    • Zorb,
      It does my heart good to see you still
      own DIOD, I know you don't post often but am thankful
      when you do. Do you still like AMKR, haven't seen you
      much over there either. BTW how's the golf
      playing this PM.


    • I think our analyst is being ultra

      my take is the following

      sales grow $4 over
      q2 or 12%
      1/3 gets to gross margin
      about $300k
      increase in operating expenses
      about 200k additional

      yields 54 cents earnings vs 46 cents in q2. well above
      the 47 cents shown.

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