Since you think that healthcare is one pretty good future investment (I do too) the only healthcare stock I've been watching is SIE. They hit their numbers after the bell today and they're a pretty nice turnaround so far this year. No real large fanfare or following; sort of like TAGS, but it has been moving pretty nicely.
I like some of your ideas ckuennen. I do agree that in the next 3 or 4 years you will have a wireless personal communicator type device that will allow fast access to all the data you could ever could want.
as far as monitoring vitals you can get a watch that measures blood pressure and pulse rate already. fairly accurate from what I can see.
Probably the next frontier is more home automation. the problem is basically that no company/group of companies has come with a very simple to install system that really provides compelling value.
I am really praying that all those people in china, india, brazil and russia demand as their god-given right a cell phone, a pager, a p.c. and a home entertainment center. that would solve a lot of our demand problems for tech. when the street people of india have cell phones, we know its time to get out of tech, as it will be completely saturated.
Meanwhile, I need an electronic device that gives me the line to the cup on greens with a lot of grain.
First of all I do no reasearch. If I have any important decisions to make, I run all that stuff by my buddy Shakka, he's a Sherpa that lives in Tibet and is kind of a mistic. All the other stuff I just make it up as I go. Shakka from the top of the world and devining the markets for me, says the trend looks down to him. Shakka is convinced that the out come of the Microsoft Federal case is not even going to slow MSFT down. Shakka who's super computer like mind is unaffected by 700 trips to the last base camp before the summit of Mt Everest says msft and the other past market leaders are still very young companies and will boom again before they mature. MSFT is going to own the world, they have so much money and have so many revenue streams and investment properties, they really don't know what industry to take over next. So much for Shakka now I can make some stuff up. We have right now all the big products we need, but all can be improved. I see your watch monitoring your vitals temperature/bloodpressure and a weather instrument, temp/barometer and becoming your portable communication device. I see a box key board device that will be every where you go. You buy a car or lease or rent a car or any vehicle your in, you will just type in your id number and all calls will be directed to that location. The same with planes, trains or any place you find yourself. That device will clear automatically when you leave unless you instruct differently. Every event in the world will be accesssable to you on your computer in real time, it will be done simply by downloading animated compontants that will move as their likeness do in the real world. This process will use almost no bandwidth because only the grid locatings of the active components will be transmitted. You could have every event going at the same time in thumbnail. imagine extracting and injecting exact info from one mind to another. Your dead and we extract the whole of your life and inject it into a clone we've grown of you. So now you have a brand new young body and your 50,60 or 90 years of knowledge. Devices for everyone that can contain the knowledge and wisdom and voice and personallity of a dead loved one. Industries that clean the environment,oceans,rivers,streams,lakes and even restore the atmospheric gases to perfect. Molecule machines made of materials that wont alert your immune system to attack. These same devices traveling the smallest passageways of the circulatory system in different parts of your body and even your brain harmlessly making miracle repairs. Building materials that absorbe energy all day and at nite give it back in neon like colors. Whole cities in neon and color coordinated, the world at nite lit up like a Christmas tree.
I heard the exact same joke but it involved the rarely carried 1-iron.
Zorb, technology ebbs and flows. The last 'killer app' for semis I recall was the Palm pilot. Every man, woman, child and family pet in the universe was supposed to buy one of them. When Palm closed on its IPO day at a higher market cap than its parent spin-off comany 3Com, I realized the market was in la la land. That was one of the two most memorable moments for me in the last bull market (the other was the previous Dept. of Justices' finding of MSFT in violation of anti-trust laws).
If you think about it, there is never really is a single silver bullet. It is just the ebb and flow of technology as it marches forward. I can't predict what the next set of must-have discrete semiconductor products are but they will come as sure as the sun will rise tommorrow (it'll just take a bit longer than tommorrow). Patience man. Relax and play golf. Dont' sell your DIOD unless you want to take on the added risk of attempted market timing (although something tells me you already did choose to play the timing game). If you choose to play the timing game then I believe that DIOD's lows will result in some of the best potential returns in this entire sector by the time the next upturn is over.
Reminds me of a story about 3 laymen and a priest golfing when suddenly a fierce thunderstorm sets in; blinding flashes of lightning beating all about them. The 3 laymen scatter and jump under an overpass. The priest reaches into his bag, runs out into the middle of the course and holds up his 5-iron, shaking it at the sky.
"Father!" one of them yells, "get out of the storm! You'll get killed by the lightning!"
"Oh no, my son!" the priest replies, "Not even GOD can hit a 5-iron!!!"
I learned my current golf swing from ben hogan's power golf and a 5 foot 2 professional. the 5 foot 2 professional was right handed while I am left handed so when I complained that he couldn't understand my problems, he took my 7 iron turned it over, and hit it 150 yards down the middle.
everytime I hit a high, 150 yard 7 iron, 30 years later, I think of him.
I too do not understand the practical applications of genetics, e.g., how they will make us money. but they will. this may be a leap of faith requiring picking 3 stocks and praying for a 10x out of 1 while the other 2 languish.
the practical applications for home use of a personal communicator require a lot of standards from the application providers. somehow the guys that produce sprinkler systems, timers for air conditioners, pool systems don't remind me of fast moving providers.
getting back into golf requires that you don't value the experience based on the score you shoot, but how much you cherish 4 hours of peace away from the world of corporate b.s. I shot three rounds at pebble beach last year in the 90's and enjoyed everyone of them although I am a 12 handicap.
Of course if I shot 83, I would have been a lot happier.
I really don't see any big caps that will take you to heaven. fibercore, rentway,catalyst semi, brio, and diodes have a good chance of 2x to 4x returns over the next 2 years.
meanwhile I will collect 9.5% dividends on 70% of my money.
I'm still waiting for the perfect 5-iron. Maybe then I'll start to get back into golf.
I'll stretch your "personal communicator" a bit. Have you noticed the EZ Pass currently used for many toll roads and bridges being adapted by some retailers? I see eventually a FRAM (op possibly EEPROM) - generated personal info center card followed by the eventual adoption of a fingerprints scanner, a DNA scanner scanning the perspiration on your skin, or an eye scanner being the source of your personal "info center", including not only financial info but eventually medical and dental history, your will or trust info, etc.
I see the network appliance being adapted to home appliances, indoor and outdoor lights, sprinkler, TV/DVD, security, self-propelled lawnmower and pool cleaner, HVAC, bill payments, security system, etc. using either a wireless signal or a high frequency signal riding on your home AC system. However this evolution will probably be very slow as devices develop individual receivers/transmitters to accommodate the system.
Genetics is truly a mind-boggling field with unlimited possibilities but I am as baffled on how to play these possibilities as I was in 1992 when I first hooked up a phone receiver to a "modem" to make my PC talk to another one at up to 14K.
For the time being I also envision the techs becoming largely akin to clothing retailers until the next big development, not refinement, comes along. I still think that for the U.S. one large surge will come via wireless when the UHF TV stations lose their legislated death grip on UHF frequencies.
If/when a technology is developed to safely and cheaply remove H2 from water, burn it or strip its elementary particles out to create an electrolytic cell, and recombine it as water, I believe that a boom which will dwarf even the past PC and cell phone booms will emerge.
Regarding the market, I see swings even wilder than these as more and more people realize that there is much more money to be made momentum trading than investing. I also see more companies realizing that the safest haven is to have a PE=N/A so that short-term investors don't have anything as confusing as a PE to base quick decisions on (e.g., CSCO, BRCM, PMCS, RFMD, JDSU, Q, etc...).
For the very near term, I see FIBR and possibly RBAK running very nicely from this point provided that there are at least 5 dozen talking heads daily pumping and shilling the NDX so they can make their bonuses again this year, and "investors" not being able to find any mid or large cap techs which are not currently fully priced through 2004, start once again to look to the small caps and speculatives.
I also don't know what's in store for AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, and the rest when INTC is finished with its current King Kong capital spending.
I'm neutral AMAT right now but am watching POWI, KLAC and the QQQ while waiting for the next post-fed-meeting selloff. I am a bit disappointed that the CNBCFN shills can't seem to be able to pump GE back into the stratosphere so I can buy some puts again.
I still am waiting for the driver of the next great boom. drivers are normally not replacements, e.g. dvd players replacing vcrs, laptops replacing desktops. compact disc players replacing cd players in cars.
What I see is a personal communicator replacing a combination of cell phones, pagers and hand held computers. this may be a zero sum game as the components in the three devices equal the components in the one device.
In addition, this one device may be capable of replacing a lot of smartcard devices, which I fervently hope for as I am getting tired of carrying 20 different cards.
I see more use of bionics in health care, but not sufficient to cause 25 to 30 billion incremental growth.
I see a steady 10 to 15% growth of electronics in autos but nothing sensational on that front.
I don't see any great driver in the home consumer area. the average consumer won't see home automation as a compelling item.
All in all, I see a slowdown in semi demand coming. Asia and the emerging countries will be strong for 3 or 4 years.
The growth industries in the united states will be leisure and health care as the boomers age. in fact, there may be a slowdown in spending as the boomers realize they haven't saved enough. then a large increase in spending as they consume.
scottish whiner will be investing in golf courses and drug companies.
beer, cigarettes, gambling casinos, second homes, will continue to flourish.
and of course the reits will own all the real estate other than our houses.