I have some posts for you on the CATS board. I personally blame you for my time spent due to your innocent post last month that you were 'confident stockvictor will take good notes'. Radu did adress your question on revenue breakdown but perhaps not to your (or my) satisfaction. However that is still a page back in my notes...
Good luck to all,
You used your head, mot doesn't look good but you know a year ago was the time. Don't anyone buy on anything I say. These are my opinions, GE, IBM if this trend goes on long enough their going down. A great company can not carry a sector or a market in a down trend. Intel, sun, auricle, msft, amd, emc, veritas, dell, cisco, they have all fallen. The ones that are still high, somebody is getting antsi.
I have 150+ courses in phoenix. I figure the way the economy is going, the prices will begin dropping back to realistic levels this winter.
of course, that is if I have enough money left to play them.
I didn't short motorola. I blew that one, since they warned. Galvin has to go. He is even qualified to manage a mcdonalds.
intel's guidance didn't surprise me.
I expect the market to bottom at 1600 for the nasdaq, but who news. really ugly right now.
nothing anyone can do until tech runs its course, which will be by the end of q1.
even my reits got hit hard today. people are selling everything.
Scotland Yards, Tampa Golf, Sherman Hills, Big Cypress, Huntington Hills, Valley Oaks, Hidden Creek, Plantation Palms, Lexington Oaks, TPC of Tampa, Cheval, Hunters Green, Pebble Creek, Tampa Palms, Heritage Harbor, Heritage Isles, Lake Jovita, Harbor Hills, Sugar Mill, World Woods, The Dunes, Cypress Trace, Cypress Run, LansBrook, Crescent Oaks, Lone Palm, Rocky Point, Babe Zeharias, Rogers Park, CarrollWood Village and I've probably over looked a few but if were geographically in the middle of these course you at most 30 minutes from one or two of these courses. I don't like executive courses but I played a brand new little stadium Executive course that I would play anytime. Full concrete cart paths and $15 dollar for all day golf. Can you imagine $80 a month for a family membership? Are you ready, their still building more courses.
the most needed public works projects are more municipal golf courses. tempe could use about 3 or 4 the class of troon, pebble beach etc.
I was in munich between 1983 and 1986 when the dollar was exceptionally strong, e.g. 3 marks to the dollar. in those days I was young, rich and immortal, smoking 2 packs a day and drinking 3 liters of beer a night, and skiing black slopes. now its no cigs, 3 12 oz mgd's, and intermediate and into bed by 9 pm.
I still have a lot I would like to see in europe. ireland, the countryside of france,portugal and northern spain, tuscany in italy, and some more greek isles.
This selloff looks like 1998. I believe the semi cycle will start its uptick again, very moderate growth for the next year.
However, reality has set in on valuations. nokia is now selling about 16 times next years earnings. I do expect a good upside in this one, but very little from intel, applied, cisco, emc, who's earnings estimates for next year are way too high. I can't tell yet on a lot of my small cap stocks. I do believe the right tech portfolio bought now, will show a double by the end of 2003. what you have to do is figure out realistic earnings projections for 2002 and 2003 then figure realistic valuations.
I figure nokia will make 60 cents next year and have a strong bounce in 2003 from 3G, making about $1.00. a p.e. of about 25 to 30 on 2003 will be justified. e.g. they will double from here.
my reits have held up very well through this selloff. hit for about 2% over the last 2 months, but I expected it.
We have too many investors like me, I'm still looking for a little winner. The American investor is almost surpassed in intellegence by the Dynosaur. The quick fix is more SHORTS. Can you remember how long ago I was advertising for shorts? The bulk of the ivestors at this point should be short. The fact is LONGS are still selling. No matter how crazy I sound, people are still selling MSFT, QQQ every day and their not trading at a profit. I hate the words but the best discription is lower lows and lower highs and their every where. If you watch 10,000 companies lose stock price for 18 months wouldn't you think we would get the idea. New Business, You moved to Europe, how long did you stay? I like traveling just as long as I can get back home by 9pm. When your young and somebody says Europe for a year, heck yes. Today you tell me I'm moving to Europe and I'm thinking who are you talking to. I can't think of any big public works projects. Johnson declared war on poverty, Nixon declared war on cancer, Kennedy declared war on getting to the moon. Carter said tighten your belt, very uplifting. Ford said FORE, Bush said read my lips, who says the party's don't have things in common. Reagan said I'll buy that wall, Clinton said I feel your pain, Bush says give every body $300.
you need buyers. buyers buy "stuff" for compelling reasons.
My theory for consumers is simple . . . you have two piles of money. the first pile pays for the required things, food, clothing, shelter, transportation, medical care, kids, utilities, insurances. then you have discressionary money which is for entertainment and stuff. among the stuff people only buy when they feel rich or there is a compelling reason. right now there is no compelling reason to buy new electronic products.
businesses buy stuff that will reduce costs or bring products to market faster. when times are tough, like now, there are no nice to have buys going on.
I stopped flying pan am when I had a flight delayed in new york for 5 hours. this was about the time of all their problems. They didn't have the part in inventory. then they lost my bags on the same flight. I was in the middle of moving to europe at the time.
I don't have a clue. I take it you did not short Motorola? I'm a perfect contrarian indicator. All the company's seem to have the same outdated answers, lets put out new and improved products and the suckers will come. My apologies to suckers, I mean know offense. We don't need new products we need new buyers. I picture Palm in bankruptcy court in confrence with the judge, showing him their new pocket device and the magic applications that will save the company. Motorola has a process for building chips that are 35 times faster, IBM has a process that looks promising that will allow chips to be 500 times smaller, FBCE has a process for building fiber better bigger, cheaper, NOK and the whole phone sector has a better phone and apps, PDYN and CMTN has total control of DSL aka the new grand canyon, ACT has a lock on the G3 technology, MSFT has new products coming out this week or next, INTC, AMD, EMC, VRTS, DITC are all pushing new product advances. I had to laugh when DIOD announced their new devices, like they were lighting a fuse on a rocket. Stockvictor said where's the bargains, their floating in the blood thats flowing endlessly down the street. Aesop is talking to me again. Aesop and I used to be really into wines, I think that was when I was a pilot for PanAM. I did fine in the air but was always bad at tests, I kept crashing the simulator. On the simulator they can actually incorporate live realtime radar screens in to the simulated flight tests. I tried to land a Condor on the John F Kennedy air craft carrier. Almost made it, the Condor lost a wing and everyone was killed in the conning tower. For the record, if you ever have to take oral tests, try not to use the word "almost".
well believe it or not, I still think september will be a turning point for businesses. it will get better in the tech world over the next 12 months.
the first item, which of course is getting reported with the wrong spin is cell phone sales. this year is expected to be 360 and next year 410. the last time I used a calculator, it told me that equals 14% growth.
4th quarter is always better than 3rd quarter seasonally, especially in europe. everyone is overly focused on europe, which shuts down in august.
microsoft introduces their new operating system, which will spur some growth in p.c. sales.
its not going to get worse. its just not going to get better really quickly.
but the current pall over the market based on third quarter results is ludicrous. none of these people have a perspective past where they are going to eat dinner tonight.
Having said all that, I am trying to figure out how to fit all my furniture into a studio apartment, so I can continue to afford golf, traveling and good wine.
You always have to keep your priorities straight.
my wife gave me one piece of good news . . . substitute teachers make $10 more a day than last year. hmmmmm one of substitute teaching pays for 2-3 rounds of golf. she is just going to have to teach more.
Growth Rates & Returns Comparison 1 Year | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years
Company Industry Ranking*
CSCO Revenue 17.78% 53.03%
EMC Revenue 29.14% 16.06%
AMAT Revenue 9.07% 16.98%
MOT Revenue 1.82% -10.68%
INTC Revenue -4.36% 1.54%
CATS Revenue 67.88% 53.03%
NOK Revenue 35.27% 53.14%
KO Revenue 1.04% 3.92%
CSCO Net Income -100.0% -100.0%
EMC Net Income 19.69% -15.14%
AMAT Net Income -13.56% -20.91%
MOT Net Income -100.0% -100.0%
INTC Net Income -42.73% -27.67%
CATS Net Income 95% -100.0%
NOK Net Income 34.53% -100.0%
KO Net Income 104.97% 41.04%
CSCO Cash Flow -37.69% -100.0%
EMC Cash Flow 16.39% 8.31%
AMAT Cash Flow -8.51% -7.55%
MOT Cash Flow -36.28% -93.52%
INTC Cash Flow -20.09% -5.33%
CATS Cash Flow 161.47% -100.0%
NOK Cash Flow 10.73% 29.89%
KO Cash Flow 64.21% 16.4%
CSCO ROE 10.1% -28.46%
EMC ROE 21.8% -30.64%
AMAT ROE 29% 6.52%
MOT ROE 7.1% -18.54%
INTC ROE 28.2% -19.34%
CATS ROE 69.9% -28.46%
NOK ROE 36.4% -29.32%
KO ROE 23.4% 17.7%
CSCO ROA 8.1% -24.72%
EMC ROA 16.8% -8.44%
AMAT ROA 19.6% 4.19%
MOT ROA 3.1% -12.13%
INTC ROA 22% 7.55%
CATS ROA 51.4% -24.72%
NOK ROA 19.8% -10.51%
KO ROA 10.4% 6.69%
CSCO ROIC 10.1% -26.64%
EMC ROIC 21.8% -19.48%
AMAT ROIC 26.9% 5.9%
MOT ROIC 5.8% -15.92%
INTC ROIC 27.7% 6.79%
CATS ROIC 69.9% -26.64%
NOK ROIC 35.9% -12.13%
KO ROIC 21.4% 10.21%
Trailing 12 Months Comparison
Company Industry Ranking*
CSCO Total Debt/Equity 0 0.25
EMC Total Debt/Equity 0 0.7
AMAT Total Debt/Equity 0.09 0.19
MOT Total Debt/Equity 0.58 0.53
INTC Total Debt/Equity 0.03 1.33
CATS Total Debt/Equity 0.08 0.25
NOK Total Debt/Equity 0.13 2.18
KO Total Debt/Equity 0.61 2.39
CSCO LT Debt/Equity 0 0.11
EMC LT Debt/Equity 0 0.42
AMAT LT Debt/Equity 0.08 0.14
MOT LT Debt/Equity 0.3 0.4
INTC LT Debt/Equity 0.02 1.2
CATS LT Debt/Equity 0 0.11
NOK LT Debt/Equity 0.03 2.06
KO LT Debt/Equity 0.11 2.2
CSCO P/E -116.6 118.92
EMC P/E 22.74 101.08
AMAT P/E 24.91 109.21
MOT P/E -58 115.75
INTC P/E 35.85 141.23
CATS P/E 3.16 118.92
NOK P/E 20.18 108.95
KO P/E 36.59 100.87
CSCO P/S 5.32 78.24
EMC P/S 3.67 14.53
AMAT P/S 3.94 19
MOT P/S 1.1 24.15
INTC P/S 6.18 19.91
CATS P/S 0.65 78.24
NOK P/S 2.58 46.55
KO P/S 5.98 6.23
CSCO PEG 2.3 --- n/a
EMC PEG 2.3 --- n/a
AMAT PEG 3.8 --- n/a
MOT PEG --- --- n/a
INTC PEG 3.2 --- n/a
CATS PEG --- --- n/a
NOK PEG 1.4 --- n/a
KO PEG 2.4 0.6
Most of the stuff I write doesn't make the board. You can't tell but I'm actually editing out most of the garbage and some of the insanity. Aesop and the lady of the house actually had a labor disagreement that the husband had to arbitrate. Aesop was very close to earning that beautiful robe. There was a problem on the last visit to the Lady's evening chambers. Aesop on eight other visits had acquitted himself well but on the ninth visit Aesop was going for two and the green jackit so to speak. On the ninth Aesop did well and got another excellent score. After a snack a beverage and a short rest Aesop was ready to go for number ten. He was doing fine but his partner was not cooperating, she wanted to save number ten for a later visit. But Aesop pressed on, fatigue having its way and a mistake was made. One motion was a little long and not noticed in time to stop the return motion from falling a little low and entering forbiden and the lady of the house shreik shocking territory. She was outraged and screaming, Aesop left running in an attempt not to be discovered by servants coming to the Ladys rescue.