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Sanchez Energy Corporation Message Board

  • deridder64 deridder64 Oct 29, 2012 5:00 PM Flag

    3rdq Revenues/EPS

    I've just done a broad brush look at their revenues and EPS assuming 1700 boe/d avg for 3rdq;
    cost on a percentage basis remains same (should be trending down with incr production), avg
    crude price of $95. I come out with Revenues of approx $15m and EPS $.14. The avg EPS for
    the 3rdq from yahoo is $.09.....should be a positive mover for the stock price. Anyone have a basis to assume a higher price (than $95) for their crude this q?


    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Yr 1,700 boe/d average for Q3 is too high, the 1,700 boe/d number was the production rate at Sept 30. Try something like 1,350 boe/d for the qtr. For sure they'll report sales and earnings way below street estimates - look for a loss - because oil wells didn't come into production as early in Q3 as initially expected.

      Not sure earnings for Q3 are important really, the company is ramping up big time and the story is all about how successful they are in that ramping process. The operations update we received yesterday was ok, but one thing stands out; there's a large and growing number of wells awaiting completion or doing flowback etc, all about to come into production in the next couple of months. I look forward to hearing about the IP and 30-day test results from these wells. A series of good numbers will prove that these guys know what they are doing and the shares will explode. But a series of bum numbers will prove that they don't cut it and the stock will drop. On balance, and assuming in-between IP and 30-day test results, and given that the stock is cheap with little or no good news factored in, the chances are that the share price will go higher.

      • 2 Replies to mkiu2006a
      • Mkiu....Salute! You were very close...not a negative eps but NonGAAP eps was only $.04....
        I only missed by $.10! Ha! Well I will take another look at 4thq, but would like your feelings on an estimated "doubling" of revenues (yahoo estimate) for 4thq or any other comments
        You may have on good or bad things in the "hopper" for SN? K

        Sentiment: Buy

      • There has been no activity whatsoever on the Sante site for at least two weeks. Not sure what the definition of "undergoing completion" is. On all of the other wells in the area there has been continuous activity after the frac is completed. I wish Sanchez would explain why they are no longer working on the well.

        This is from Sanchez's report that was put out yesterday.
        "The Sante A #1H (W.I. 100%), the Company's third well in the Marquis area, was drilled to a measured depth of 18,168 feet (lateral length of 6,020 feet) and is currently undergoing completion. "

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