Is the cancelled engine a total loss or does the technology still have a future but just needs more work. In other words, is the cancelled engine technology worth anything to NAV or anybody else?
The MaxxForce still has value. The ironset is the stoutest platform out there. The Advanced EGR did not meet EPA standards for 2010 engines. Fitting the MaxxForce line with SCR technology will surpass EPA standards and give Navistar a headstart on the EPA's next level. This SCR addition is currently in motion and should roll out within 6 - 10 weeks. They beat their own deadline rolling out the ISX last month.
The industry has made a small living off of trashing NAV but the company has deep roots and a great, transitional management team in place. The problems of the recent past are resolved and are, again, in the past. In spite of the poor forecast for the industry in 2013, I'd bet NAV will rise back to the top.
NAV may rise back to the top, but it likely won't be because of MaxxForce engines. The addition of SCR will make them compliant, and able to be sold. Massive (nee "Advanced") EGR has one major drawback that NAV doesn't like to talk about: It wrecks fuel economy. There's no 2 ways about it. If you want to force massive amounts of exhaust gas back into the intake, it's going to cost you a lot of energy. There's lots of ways you can do it: create a vacuum with an intake throttle, increase exhaust pressure with an exhaust throttle, etc. Intake throttles cause lots of pumping losses to overcome the resistance, and exhaust throttles steal energy that could otherwise be used for the turbo chargers. There's no getting around the thermodynamics of it. Go look at some of those "fuel efficient" ProStars out there with a MaxxForce 13. They're likely geared with a 2.73 rear end!!! Why? To overcome the inherent inefficiency of the EGR system. Sure, it's pretty efficient on the highway, as long as you have a couple of hours to accelerate to highway speed. :^)
OK, so? Well, now you're going to add an SCR system on one of the least efficient engines on the market, and you're having to spend a TON of urea to get your uncompliant engine under the emissions cap. It will be interesting to see where the MaxxForce engines end up from a FLUID economy standpoint.
Also, all of the other benefits that NAV was using to market their EGR system (no fluid to add, no "extra" weight of SCR system) are gone. Now you've got the ADDED weight of their EGR plumbing in addition to the SCR system.
The next emissions level to come along is NOT a new NOx or PM limit... it's a Fuel Economy limit! Since NAV has pulled almost every fuel economy lever they could just to get "on par" with the rest of the SCR systems, they're going to have trouble meeting the new standards.
I predict that we're going to see that massive EGR system re-engineered (or removed) in the near future in order to help meet fuel economy targets.
My other guess is that we'll see a return to 85% market share .... of Cummins Engines in NAV HD trucks.
Let's just hope NAV lives long enough to get there!
Deepak Kapur picked fights with all of the engine OEM's by bashing urea in relation to safety concerns and accusations that customers would put water in the urea tanks. That's why the industry attacked Navistar. There are numerous videos and articles in and past 2010 when Dee Kapur attacked the usage of urea which is the proven system used by the whole world. In addition, Cummins and internal engineers gave warnings to Ustian that Advanced EGR would not achieve the emissions level needed. In turn, Navistar spent as much money on Advanced EGR as Navistar spent on getting the whole NGV product line into production. The product line ended up number one in marketshare in all classes at one time. Under the last decade, Navistar has lost Ford as a customer, spent a tremendous amount of money to get back onto the NYSE, and has been SERIOUSLY investigated by the SEC twice. The board of directors can only be the ones to blame because they bought into lies. Water under the bridge...tell that to the dealerships, customers, shareholders and employees whom lost money, time and sleep over the actions allowed by the board. By the way, the monies to do Lisle and Melrose Park could have paid dividends. That statement alone shows that the board was not looking out for the best interest of shareholders. The warranty and lost in market share shows that the board was not looking out for the customers. Don't cry anyone a river! Just save the bus, MD, SS, and RH trucks lines by being competitvie, especially in FLUID economy, with PACCAR, VOLVO, and DAIMLER. If the parts division starts losing profits, I would say that the logistics industry has turned away from Navistar completely for products, parts and service. These customers will be hard to get back.
None of NAV's engines currently meet EPA regulations. They "say" they are moving forward with modifications to certify all of their diesel engines 13L and smaller - but there is no mention of a time table or a Plan B if they don't meet the regulation requirements. The only progress we've heard is regarding the integration and certification of the Cummins heavy duty 15L.
Wrong. The ironset is revolutionary. Mechanical failures are mostly limited to the "hang on" devices (EGR). The engine has a B50 life of 1.2M miles. Closest competitor, Cummins ISX is 1M miles. And the ISX is a great engine.
The Advanced EGR technology didn't pass EPA. That was definitely Ustian's folly but mostly for not having a contingency plan in place. Had Advanced EGR worked, Ustian would be hailed as an innovator in the engine building industry.