At yesterday's open, NAV's share price spiked to over $26 and then again middle of the day. All I found is that yesterday NAV presented at a JPM Conference and also that Goldman said a lot of positives things about Cummins and cited one catalyst being its view that Navistar, which uses CMI engines, will regain market share.
I don't have a good link or quote but am wondering if anyone else here found reasons for the buy at yesterday's open that sent the shares higher. NAV reports next week and knowing wha Goldman said about the company could be a good preview to those earnings.
Looking for positives where there are many negatives. Reasons for expecting a "less than stellar" first quarter.
Navistar has started to build trucks with Cummins engines.
They are at least 3 years behind their competitors that have been selling and repairing and supporting Cummins while Navistar convinced themselves that they could not alter the laws of physics. Building the truck with a Cummins engine is the easy part. You now have to train your sales people and your parts and service people to sell and service the product. Dealers have to stock the parts and techs need to be trained. From an engine prosective you no longer have your pricing advantage (non scr). Based on the warranty costs with the MaxForce not sure it was ever there. The industry is receiving orders at a reduced rate. So not a great deal of sales to report. Continuance of EPA penalties on MaxForce without scr and still have lots of MaxForce engines looking for warranty upgrades and support. Huge inventory of overpriced Navistar used trucks from customers not happy with the MaxForce performance. Costs for closing and restructuring the company post Ustain. Unfunded pension liability. The only chance for a better than expected earings report is another bogus "rabbit out of the hat" tax credit. Next week should be more red ink and lots of talk about being on the right track but not there yet.
I have a different view from most of the ideas in this message. I'm not saying I think NAV will "turn the corner" this quarter or have a blowout, but I think a few of the assessments here are off. Navistar isn't making consumer products. These are sold to companies and the companies that buy NAV products have their own maintenance staff on site, mostly. FedEx has it's own maintenance department at every terminal and its trucks range from Volvo, to Peterbilt (PCAR), to International (NAV). The staff already know how to service the different makes of engines (and why hire them if they couldn't because they should be as flexible as the business) and with NAV using CMI engines, NAV now becomes more serviceable than ever. The EPA concern was addressed last year, maybe about 3 months back, and the penalties came in at about half of what the maximum expected was.
I think a lot in this message from Petey was more relevant to about 4 months ago. I do know that some of the Park Service Departments are switching away from NAV in favor of other trucks, so I'm not here pumping NAV. But from reading the last earnings transcripts and following the company since April last year, I am thinking that NAV will qualm a lot of investors this Monday when the company reports.