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NovaGold Resources Inc. Message Board

  • waldoinc2003 waldoinc2003 Oct 30, 2004 11:50 AM Flag

    RCS/OT

    I think maybe we should have picked up a bit of that TOPT. Earnings come out Tuesday. One knows that they can't have bad results.

    Of course, I didn't think NG was going to break through seven either.

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    • I have been nibbling at Bankers Petroleum. Reworking wells in Albania for a nice profit and working in the Ukraine which is interesting. CEO has stated that he plans to follow the WHT model of growth through acquisition (and share issue unfortunately). Still early with no earnings or compliant reserve reports but interesting none the less. Won't buy too much until they prove themselves further but looks like it might be akin to buying TGA in the $.40's.

    • I am with you, RCS. NG looks to be ready to give us some opps, finally.

      If I can help with EGY, you're right, there is little debt. The management does not seem to be interested in hype at all, and that is encouraging. Most of their releases with actual results exceed previous expectations. Reserves look decent if not excellent (they may begin to look more encouraging next year as they continue to drill off shore).
      At a ten to one, they are too cheap right now. Their average sale price for third quarter production was 40, which seems cheaper than what it will be bought for in the coming year. But if forty holds, then the stock is still too cheap. Sixteen cents for third qtr earnings, no reason to reduce that figure for the next several quarters that I can see, and what if oil holds at fifty? Profits go up a heck of a lot more than twenty-five percent. At the margin, you know how that works. I sold the rest of my CNP a couple of weeks ago and picked up some more of it, also preparing strategy for NG.

      Geopolitically, Gabon looks fine. No muslims, and the country is relatively prosperous and has stable government. Some of the neighbors do not, of course, fit this description.

      Apologize if anyone is offended or bored with this discussion. It is not intended that way, and I do not feel that I am pumping anything. I am relaying info that I have read and tried to analyze, and if it helps anyone, then it would be gratifying to me, as several here have helped me.

    • TK is my favorite in he sector

    • The tanker stocks have stalled in October. Earnings above consensus do not move the price up (GMR 10/27.) There has been a short attack replete with misinformation from such usual suspects as Alan Abelson of Barron's and James Cramer of The Street.com/CNBC. The unsupported threat of a surplus of tankers in the future reminds me of the often used warnings of possible central bank gold sales.

      You and rcs are on the right track. NG and oil tanker stocks deal in commodities priced in the world market, giving US residents a way to hold onto some real wealth in the face of a declining dollar.

      The tanker sector has some room to run going into winter. The rates for shipping benefit from increasing demand for long hauls to US and record growth in China while orders for new tankers take three years to delivery. Oil supply increases could move the price of oil down, but tanker supply remains constrained for next year because mandatory scrappings exceed newbuilds. Initial reaction to a drop in oil prices is usually negative, but short-lived, for tanker stocks. The only danger here is a decline in demand caused by a slowdown in global economic activity. That would reduce demand for tankers.

      • 2 Replies to pick2x
      • "oil tanker stocks deal in commodities priced in the world market, giving US residents a way to hold onto some real wealth in the face of a declining dollar."

        This is most likely a theme we all ought to look for in our stocks picks outside the PM arena. Capacity on an oil tanker is a commodity...supply and demand varies. The FED and the Central Banks are right there helping the commericals defeat the longs. However in the shipping industry many somewhat obsure factors are at play, most we get very old or distorted news about. SFL and FRO were good to me this year. Should have had much more, certainly would have been better for my portfolio that its usual concentration in miners and metals that are such political footballs...These two stocks have been paying good dividends this year....very big in FRO's case...SFL is relatively new...and offspring of FRO... Both worth a look again...

        I'd throw up a chart but it seems every time the clock gets move around as it did this weekend it takes a while for things to adjust....Many web pages are very slow today...Anybody else notice...?

      • Good points all. Thanks. I read a synopsis a week or so ago that seemed to tie it all together the same way. The supply of tankers is pretty inelastic, and it seems that firms like TOPT have already sold a lot of their capacity at current rates into the next year or so. If that is true, then current fat margins are largely put in place, and it seems as if the market may not have caught up with the success of TOPT as yet. Your point about buying these companies as a protective measure may be the best reason of all.

    • yup. hard to say though. i held off as the drop in oil failed to cause a good pull back in topt. failed to ad ivw as well as i was stuborn at $US0.95. the loonie is making it hard to add on dips. i'll likely add next week at the ask. like nova, ivw is about the share count - not price. commercial shorts only added a little in the gold markets. setting up alot like last year. pog could get past 440 by january. hmmmm. wish i knew.

 
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