Sell NOW in advance of next quarterly earnings, taking the loss, and hope that earnings live up to low expectations and that the company formally announces lay-offs and a 1-for-10 reverse split?? Then hope that nothing positive like a large contract award(s), significant insider purchase, isotope commercialization opportunity, retirement of CEO, and/or acquisition of the company happens before 30 days after the sale so as to be able to get back in??
sellow, just some random thoughts and purely personal opinion, others will certainly have a different take. 1. Market timing is really hard, just look at all the conditions you enumerated as needing to happen or not happen to make the sell and buy-back strategy work. 2. I think it works better w/ bigger more liquid stocks (say an IBM or XOM, etc.). Once an institution dumps a 44 cent per share stock, they are not likely to re-institute the holding at a lower level (not if they want to keep their job). 3. Remember it is the institutions that primarily drive the stock price. Most have a fiscal year that ends October 31. If they decide to sell, it will likely be in September and October, so you might want to wait until that is out of the way before buying back the stock. And like I said, don't expect any help from them jumping back in after they get out. 4. A reverse split will likely have to be announced pretty soon. They have to give notice and allow time for a shareholder vote I believe. They need to get it done by early December, so you could get an announcement over the next 2-3 months I bet. I am not sure they can do the reverse split w/o shareholder authorization, maybe someone else could address that point. 5. If some third party wanted to buy the company and they haven't moved w/the stock at 44 cents, you have to wonder what constitutes a "fire sale" if not that price. Someone may hope to get it ultimately by bargaining w/the creditor. So i guess I would worry less about the turnaround trade opportunity, and more about whether it is worth trying to save the last 44 cents or just roll the dice and hope for a rebound and better exit opportunity. That is going to depend on the size of the position held, whether you have realized gains elsewhere to offset, temperament and risk tolerance. Good luck.