I think many investors are watching for four events, tests, (whatever you want to call them) to be met and put in the rear view mirror before moving ahead and buying the stock w/conviction. 1. The reverse split 2. Tax loss selling and portfolio pruning near year-end 3. Not 3Q results, but rather 4Q results which will be the first w/o the Hanford treatment subcontract to see if the missing income and revenues in that quarter can be compensated by further cost reductions, increased waste stream revenues elsewhere, or new contract business. 4. The Sequester vote for the upcoming year.
So IMO it all comes down to what price investors are willing to pay for more certainty. If those four events can be resolved, put behind the company, investors might be more willing to pay hypothetically $1.00-$1.25 per share (pre-split price) for a still generous possible quasi "multi-bagger return" of $2.50 to $3.00 per share while removing the greater risk of a total loss as things stand currently. The most bullish here will want to embrace the extra risk and not wait for more certainty to blunt a home-run type swing, or for fear of missing some big contract award for the leaking Hanford tanks while waiting for more certainty. On the latter, I think the Energy Secy. is in no particular hurry. He seems more interested in preventing another "energy event" related to another Hurricane Sandy and pursuing smart-grid technology. Until contaminated groundwater reaches the river, an "in due course" attitude w/regard to the tanks could prevail. Like everything else in D.C. "kicking the can down the road" is the default option. 2Q results provided a glimmer of hope and warrants a positive outlook, 3Q should be ok, 4Q has less visibility---probably already in the stock price, but the risk is high as is the potential reward. For me it remains a mad money, speculative, very small percent of the portfolio holding w/a bit more comfort than I had after Q1.
Very well done robo. Carrying your comments further, I think investors who want to own the stock have three choices. The first is to buy the shares now at 50 cents, The second is to wait until they might fall to 25 cents in accordance with the risks you outlined. The third is to buy some % now and average down to where you think the bottom might be.
I'm guessing the stock has an upside potential of $3 to $5 in about 2 to 5 years. Using the lesser $3, at the present price of 50 cents, that's a 6 bagger. If you manage to buy at the hypothetical bottom of 25 cents with the same number of dollars , it could be a 12 bagger. Each person has to ask himself if they would be satisfied with a 6 bagger "certainty", or is it worth the risk of missing the ride to $5 by waiting in the hopes that they can get a 12 bagger. The answer likes in each person's psycological DNA. Good luck to all the longs.