Whats the growing consensus amongst you guys with regards to the future? We have had two consecutive quarters of positive growth and at this point the company is incredibly undervalued. I heard some murmurs that Q1 2013 will not be that great? What do you guys think? As for the future of the stock when can we expect this thing to pop to the $2-3 range we all know it should be at.
This isn't the only metal recycler that is down 90% from it;s high. Check out MEA. It fell form ~14 to ~1.40. Us metal recycler similar to CNAM but a but larger in scope. The whole industry is in weakness. But these companies earnings are very cyclical, and you know in a few years the scrap metal market is going to return, but i believe it will first rebound in china. You are looking at a sector that could easily appreciate 200-500% in a year or two. It is a bit of a gamble.. but too many times I have purchased companies in cyclical down turns and made huge money on the rebounds. Also i am looking into getting into AMD as well, another cyclical downturn. It's easy to find value in companies where investors horizons are too short.. it seems the investment horizon with CNAM and AMD is looking like a few months to a year at most... when id you broaden your perspective to two to three years.. you can see enormous returns potential.
For patient investors there are enormous returns available in this marketplace from people looking for short term security / gains. I'm estimating AMD climbs back to 4-6 dollars in a 1.5 years and CNAM returns to 1.20 in 1.5 years. That is an amazing return annualized, and well worth the risk of underperformance.
the market is strange and emotions rule over logic. Logic says you have very good odds of doubling of tripling or more, and small odds of a loss based on historical sector performance and price movements.
It all comes down to sourcing the scrap at good price imo. If they can source the scrap they will fill their order. I think the VAT tax break will help them enormously sourcing scrap metal, so imo, that might be the catalyst that lets them put the facility to full utilization which will be what we need to really smash open the margins and revenue.
I agree with Omar. We need confirmation that we got the VAT break and it would be nice to understand the dollars so we can calculate the EPS impact. In addition one thing no one has talked about is the institutions are filing form 13 so it will be interesting as they all come through the SEC if we had any institutions add new positions, increased, decreased or stayed status quo. This could signal the confidence in the market as to where CNAM is headed. The 6 current holders typically file between the next week and the middle of next month. We'll see how this plays out...