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MicroStrategy Inc. Message Board

  • novice_20848 novice_20848 Mar 25, 2000 2:28 PM Flag

    Was speaking to an MSTR employee...

    yesterday.

    I believe there is a real bad
    atmosphere at the company now and that people are stunned
    wondering what the hell happened. There are rumors
    spreading that this was all a PR stunt by Mike
    Saylor...

    Also, would NOT recommend the stock to anyone right now
    due to the lawsuits...

    It appears that the
    employees are pretty bummed cause their stock options may
    be worthless when they can finally cash them in in a
    couple of years!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • [eom]

    • Like every comparison, there are real differences
      between LGTO and MSTR. MSTR has much more interesting
      S/W. OTOH its clear that the MSTR takes more
      handholding and support while at the same time providing more
      value added. They also use PR extremely effectively.
      The "black bra" story is a key example. This is the
      sort of thing that happens day in day out with lots of
      different db's and products. In a period of momentum
      trading and, shall we say, "elastic" valuations this can
      be an asset.

      Its also clear that the analysts
      were not left hanging by MSTR. Looking at LGTO its
      clear the analysts felt they were twisting in the wind.
      Just days before the Qtr, they were telling
      institutions and analysts they were going to make the numbers.
      Oops.

      OTOH, the sheer magnitude of the restatement of MSTR is
      a flag. And the indications of mutual back
      scratching sales creates some question as to the quality of
      revenue. Of course this is of concern where the revenue
      multiple is so high that the opportunity exists such as is
      typical in high tech, high momentum stocks.

      SQL is
      cool stuff, the engines and front ends have sure
      gotten damned good. Let me at the metal though ;)

    • can you tell me where i can get complete details on sop97-2 i need it urgently for a job interview!!

    • I understand now, thanks for the clarification. I think MSTR will be back up over $200 within a month, possibly much sooner.

      Good Luck!

    • saying in my post. These two cases have pretty
      much nothing in common except for that SOP-97 and
      SAB101 played some role in both. By no means does it
      mean that MSTR's recovery would be weak like
      LGTO's.

      I expect to see 180-200 fairly soon. Sooner if we
      get positive news, later if we get some more negative
      news. Only negative news I see on the horizon is that
      the company is going to come up with the revised
      (downward) guidance for revenues and earnings, and generally
      that is never good. Obviously this is different since
      the stock already has taken such a steep fall.

    • There are a couple of things that one needs to
      realize before one tries to speculate that MSTR will
      follow the same path LGTO did after the
      debacle.

      Please read this artcle
      (http://www.fool.com/news/2000/lgto000120.htm?ref=yhoolnk) to understand that LGTO had serious doubts and
      questions raised about their ability to be a viable player
      in the enterprise market, it was not just a case of
      restatement. In the case if MSTR, they are obviously kicking
      ass in the market, and are THE leader in their space
      (although I am sure the shorts would call them a "SQL
      Generating Consulting Company").

      The other thing that
      might make a substantial difference is that LGTO was
      hit left right and center with analyst downgrades,
      presumably due to the point I made above. Contrast this to
      the rock solid analyst support MSTR has received
      after the debacle. Even the most long-established bear
      on MSTR, Merrill has downgraded to Accummulate,
      which is hardly bad since that is the second best
      rating from MLCO (they don't have any "strong"
      buys)

      As far as the lawsuits are concerned, one BIG
      positive for MSTR after this debacle is that there is
      hardly any insider trading activity for at least a
      couple of months back. Just one "small" sale by some
      Trundle guy. Absolutely no insider selling trend from
      where I stand.

      All this having been said, I
      think the recovery is just as overdone and premature as
      was the sell-off, so there is no fair way to analyze
      where the stock should be at this time. To think that
      the stock is almost exactly where it was at the
      beginning of March seems to undermine the significance of
      these recent events. On the other hand, if one sees
      that it is trading at 40% of its price as of March
      10th, then there still seems to be PLENTY of room for a
      recovery!!!!

      Interesting, isn't it :-)

    • Thanks for the LGTO ref. Indeed, same basic
      problem. Here are the comps.

      1. LGTO revenue errors
      were far less a percentage of the company than MSTR,
      10% vs 25%

      2. LGTO profits were impacted much
      less than MSTR. Lower profits rather than large
      losses.

      3. LGTO also had a recent registration statement
      withdrawn as a result.

      4. LGTO didn't claim SOP97-2
      compliance, rather they stated their revenue recognition
      clearly.


      Their stock took somewhat less of a hit but has
      recovered somewhat less also.


      Interesting
      comparison.

    • I have been burned once by LGTO for a same
      problem. I feel for MSTR shareholder.

      MSTR longs
      should look at the LGTO chart for the example how the
      stock move in the next few weeks.

      The management
      need to be hanged...

      Disclaimer: not long or
      short, just lurking this board to understand the real
      nature of the reinstatement. I am holding other software
      stock...and do not want to get caught again ( after
      LGTO)

      Porsche

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MSTR
139.01+2.35(+1.72%)Sep 16 4:00 PMEDT

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