I think you are being too conservative in your upside potential. For one thing EGN management is being very aggressive locking in hedges at super high levels. They are also being smart to lock in some of their production, leaving a lot of production to be sold at prevailing market rates or at higher hedges should oil/nat. gas prices remain high.
We are now heading into a slow time for nat. gas and oil -- end of the summer driving season and approaching the cool fall temps. Use of oils and nat. gas drops off. But be careful, because that's when the brokers clean everybody out, they load up and then start pushing panic scenarios for nat. gas usage as winter approaches. Same old game.
Next, EGN plans on one or two acquisitions later this year, which will bring added attention to the company. Here we need to watch the shorts as they short the acquirer and buy the company that's being acquired. Also same old game.