You are right on target RocDoc with your #'s regarding potential SP with the assumption of $15 P\E and the guidance from EGN.
I have studied the industry averages for a P\E similar to EGN and found some lower figures than 15. I realize that I pushed 15 myself in the past. But it is hard to find comparative figures for a company that owns a public utility AND is into oil and gas exploration, extractment, refinement, distribution and sales as is the division of EGN - Energen Resources. I have also seen higher than 15. 17-18.
But the P\E is also an anticipatory expectation of where the company is going. Not just current earnings or conservative guidance from the company itself, so it could be higher or lower. In other words SP is not always dependant upon current mathematical value based upon earnings but upon anticipated value. IMO.
Look at JSDA, Starbucks, etc.
EGN is more into NG than oil but increasing in oil. Also, the price of NG is starting to move up. I know that from several sources. It is a complicated industry to follow and understand. To long a story to go into here. You could ask the real Big2 about that. I know that there is an increasing amount of LNG pumping thru pipelines from the gulf. Overfull inventory storage is being moved out and replaced. God save us from another Katrina!
So, what I am saying is, (as #9 says), my gut and 21 years of owning EGN is telling me that we are on an upward trend again. I believe the Co. has found it's footing again. I have said that for a while. It was a big shift from being just a Utility Co. named Alagasco to what they are now.
I predict, (at least at YE) higher earnings than the guidance. I have seen more than one "reliable" ANALyst predict that also.
As far as 6\30 earnings I am thinking maybe a little higher than the guidance. If not we will fall back down the ladder. I do know that Calibos is on the hot seat!! My final prediction is $65-70 by 12-31-07. Maybe more depending on world events. Sticking my neck out there. Maybe a split???
Good luck to all. This is all JMHO! Do your own DD! Let me say again-JMHO!
An excelent post my friend. Hope to see you still around with me as 2007 comes and passes. You know I love tech analysis.. =)..but real winners are also about instinct. I'm ready for tomorrow. Go EGN...