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DDR Corp. Message Board

  • dmettler1 dmettler1 Mar 17, 2010 2:45 PM Flag

    mpaxton77 - Consider this...

    mpaxton77 - So you're shorting DDR at $13. I got it.

    I'll take you at your word that you are indeed proselytizing about the coming economic disaster for the financial benefit of the people reading your High Frequency Posting.

    It's too easy to dismiss you as just wrong right now, who knows you could end up being right at some point in the future, but consider the points below to see why your message no longer carries much weight with me:

    1) You present a long-term view on the economy and capital markets with a lot of conviction, it's made me think quite a bit, however all of your advice is short-term, trading, oriented as opposed to investment advice in line with your long-term thesis. I've struggled to follow your trading logic since the market began moving up again in early Feb.

    2) Your advice during the last two weeks of Jan to short DDR from 10 down to 8 was profitable and seemed in line with your overall market thesis, however the majority of the trade predictions that I've seen you post on this board since then have been unprofitable, including your advice to buy TZA, which is down over 30% since you recommended it in late Jan and early Feb. DDR in contrast is up 55% from Feb 1, that's a fantastic return in a month and a half.

    3) Since you present yourself as a short term trader, I've seen no acknowledgment from you that in the short term you've been wrong on DDR, which you have been. In mid Feb I remember you stating you had a stop at $10.30 on your short, but I saw no follow up on that loss. Then you mysteriously claimed you had been long DDR in mid Feb, for the rise above $10 and were now waiting until after $11 to short, all after you had repeatedly said DDR was a short sellers gift when it was in the $10s and $9s and could go all the way to $5.5 when it was in the $8s. I often see you tout other trades you're doing that are working for you. Very inconsistent stuff.

    4) Put those 3 points together, 1) Strong Conviction of long-term thesis with only short-term trading orientation, 2) Very poor recent short-term performance, 3) No acknowledgment of poor performance just after the fact touting of gains - and that leads me to say you're losing a lot of credibility with me.

    I initially found your posts thought provoking, and spent some time researching things you said, such as your points about the likelihood for very weak treasury sales and the potential collapse of that market, and so forth. However the Treasury market hasn't collapsed and while some sales were weak, others were strong and again no acknowledgment from you that the Treasury market didn't collapse.

    I've been reading your posts since you appeared on this board in mid-January when you were riding your short position on DDR down from $10. You've posted a lot since then and I thought I'd chime in on the discussion. I've posted sparingly here over the last year, however DDR has been one of my best investments ever and while I no longer hold a position I still follow the company and believe they will continue to strengthen their business as time goes on. I personally do not hold a strong view of the economy one way or the other, I just try to asses new information as it comes to light.

    Take it as you will, if you really want converts, be consistent with your short-term trading advice and admit when you're wrong. Your long-term message is interesting, but the reality is that because of how you've presented yourself, your message has been diluted by your short-term performance.

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