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PreVu, Inc. Message Board

  • gbstech gbstech Oct 13, 2004 6:06 PM Flag

    GBStech's portfolio...

    OVTI 14.52 with a promise to move past 19.00 in December

    LUCY 2.79 Not a bagholder, but I monitor this stock. A good entry point is 2.30 then ride it up to the inevitable 3.00

    NSM 15.69 Strong company. Good price.

    SMTC 20.19

    LEXR 8.02 Just hit 6.80 in after hours. All because SNDK reports 3Q 5 cents below guidance. Should go back up to 8.00 soon.

    OMCL 14.01 Good company. Good fundaments.

    CAMD 7.71 Good company. Sorely undervalued. Guaranteed cash generator.

    ELOS 17.79 New start-up. All Initiated coverage rate this company a "buy".

    RFMD somewhat undervalued. Good fundaments. Upside potential.

    UTSI Strong company. Good PR as of late. A bit ewxpensive.

    LSI 4.43 Not a solid company with almost a B in debt, but almost a B in paid-in capital, too. Dirt-cheap. Entry point is at breakout (5.30)

    VRTS 20.92 Target is 29.00. Good growth.

    ERES 13.67 Battered stock. Tremendous upside potential.

    LRCX 22.59 Tremendous growth company. Guidance exceeds analyst expectations. Entry point is now; exit at high 20's.

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    • GOOD LIST . I own CAMD, Got stopped out of ERES , what do you think? Have alot smart people like RFMD but it can not get going I was stopped out.Also stopped out of UTSI. LSI does not seem like your kind of stock? I also own ACCL,ASTSF,CAMP,IAAC,IMAX,SSFT,TINY,TSS & BIOTECH DNDN,DNA ,GERN,SUPG What do you think?

      • 2 Replies to tradehunter2020
      • IAAC: Down from their $10 high this year because last reported quarter shows a drop in net income (2004 Q3 net=434K; Q2 net=882K) over last quarter, but IAAC outperformed this year's quarter over last year's third quarter because of a very substantial gain in net income. Speciffically, IAAC announced net income of $434,000 for the three months ended June 30, 2004 ("Q3 2004") compared to net income of $115,000 for the three months ended June 30, 2003 ("Q3 2003"). Earnings per share increased to $0.09 per share (diluted $0.07) in Q3 2004 from $0.03 per share (diluted $0.02) in Q3 2003. This should help explain why IAAC is trading for around 7.50 now and <4.00 back then.
        Debt at 12M is a little high. 5M shares outstanding is about right. 56% insider ownership inspires confidence. If they can show significant growth next quarter, you will see a rally in stock price; this is guaranteed.
        By "significant," I mean anything greater than 9 cents per share. Earnings below 0.09 cents will result in the share price dropping from current levels.

        IMAX: Rallying from early August lows because company posted a significant gain in earnings last quarter. The Company's revenues in 2003 were $119.1 million, compared to $129.1 million in 2002, a decrease of 7.8% due in large part to a decrease in Film revenue. So, why is their share price higher in both 2003 and 2004 versus FY 2002 ending 31 Dec? My only explination is the company's restructuring efforts during the 2002 period held the share price down?,uu[w,a]daoayyay[da][pb10!b50][v

        On balance volume does not show a divergence, so price action from 11 Oct to present is NOT LIKELY a change in trend from uptrend to downtrend. MFI and %k suggest a consolidation since 11 Oct. But price moving below 50MA is bearish. I couldn't extrapolate anything from zig-zag w/retracements, other than a vague confirmation of the consolidation pattern.
        This confirmation shows one of two things:
        1) consolidation just ended and the uptrend will resume as of next week, or:
        2) this is not a consolidation, but a bona-fide change in trend to the downside.
        Again, OBV showing no divergence, %k turning upwards with %d heading downwards and zig-zag w/retracements ("five waves up; three waves down", A.K.A., Elliott Wave Theory) all point to a consolidation pattern rather than a change in trend. Now pay close attention to price action on monday and tuesday. If the stock does drop to 5.35, support is being tested; below 5.20 looks very bearish and should be an exit point. A double top is a trend-changing pattern, and; placing less emphasis on the oscillators and more on trend-changing patterns, it appears as if IMAX is completing a double top.

      • ACCL is trading about where it should be. In Q ended Mar 31, there was decreases ranging from -29% to -35%. Also, a "restructuring" charge of 11M (listed under "Non-Recurring on their statement of income) that helped send the stock in a tailspin early May of this year. So far, according to last Q's results, they did nothing to rectify their declining revenues. Perhaps this is due to the spinoff of PDD? If so; and I suspect it is, don't expect this stock to rise significantly higher. The damage has been done: They lost PDD on 30 Apr 2004, show declining revenues, raised additional capital by offering more shares and incurred the 11M restructuring charge that took place during the 31 Mar quarter. ACCL is a $6.00 stock.

        CAMP posted a screwed-up spreadsheet so I can't tell if it's late Apr 2004drop was the result of revenue losses in their satellite segment. I can tell you this, however: it was a 100+% gain in satellite sales for their Q ending Nov 2004 that explains their rise to nearly 15.00 in late December. Total revenues for the Q ending in may is the same as those posted in November, so I wonder what the rationale for the decline in stock price was? Couldn't have been the merger with Vytek. That merger was already priced in. There is a very small, 1M decline in net income for 31 May, but certainly not enough to warrant the drastic price drop.

        I'd keep an eye on this company. They are in a very hot industry, and it seems they're a major vendor to the big dogs of the industry, such as DirecTV. I'd remain long with CAMP as they just posted an increase in net income ($2.88M) a couple days ago. They should continue their upward trend, which almost looks like it's testing support. I don't think CAMP will breakout from support. It looks like the completion of it's bullish flag, and we can anticipate CAMP resuming it's upwards trendline. From both a fundamental and technical standpoint, things look modestly bullish for CAMP. P/E of 12 looks comfortable, EPS of 0.56 looks OK, 1.71% insider ownership is not very confidence-inspiring, however. Cash flow, debt and paid-in capital are all modest, but good. At 6.70, a good stock to own, all-around. What did you pay for CAMP, if you don't mind me asking?
        BTW, gotta get back to "work", so I'll give you my input on IAAC, IMAX, SSFT, TINY, TSS, DNDN, DNA, GERN, and SUPG a little later today...

    • Observe the statement of incomes. All listed companies post quarterly net gains. All EPS in green. Most exhibit strong growth.
      ...GBStech does NOT go dumpster diving for his stocks!!!...