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PetroKazakhstan Inc. (PKZ) Message Board

  • lenz0114 lenz0114 Jul 26, 2005 5:36 PM Flag

    Mr. Pendragon

    "Hey, I'll be as thrilled than anyone if we get that number, but we aren't."

    Sounds like you know something...link?



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    • I voted for earnings, but to be totally honest, I have no idea what tomorrow will bring.

      I think CL price will be higher. That ONGC platform disaster will probably have an enormous impact. Maybe not immediately, but it will significantly impact the price of oil to the upside.


    • My price is 2.07, if they sell some or most of the inventory in stock from the 4th quarter. If they sell all the earnings could be 2.17 maybe, or greater, depending ow when they sold it. Hopefully for at least 50, but I doubt it.

    • Because I crunch numbers for a living, I thought I would make some calculations as to second quarter estimates and with rounding came to $1.80 per share but will trump that number and guest at $1.90 per share.

      BTW, I will be listening very closely to tomorrow's conference call (11:00 AM) which should be very interesting as will the 9:00 AM release... 8:00 AM your time FG :)

      Good luck to ya!

    • I am going with $2.00 per share. I think the selling of inventory will smooth over some of the lost production due to flaring.

    • hey neil anymore aspiring and brillant ideas, you add so much (NOT)..


    • At lease should be $2.00 if 2 million bbls of the 6.6 million inventory sold.

      Maybe $2.39

      If none of the 6.6 million inventory sold during 2nd quarter, then the EPS may be $2 at best.

      If the magement want to adjust the profit in Q2 ad Q3, they may sell a little inventory in Q2 and will sell more in Q3 when the production is the lowest of the year.

    • My 2Q estimate is $2.15.

      If by chance they take a charge related to the $57 million ARNM decision (which I seriously doubt they will since they will appeal) then $1.70 per share.

    • Janos,

      It may not make sense that the subject hedging is still in place, but if you read the PR release of the Q1 it is well their, and the hedging loss for Q1 was acknowledged both in the PR release as well as during the conference call.


    • Neil, it's a great idea but bear in mind there isn't a spreadsheet in the world that can factor in the Lukoil situation, the relationship with the KAZ gov't., possible future restrictive regs and the like.
      The hard asset value of PKZ is useful to know but a lot more than that is driving the stock's value.
      Good luck.

    • Do you know how complicated what you explained is to a person who doesn't understand advancd math? 99% of people don't understand advanced math. People would have to study the mistake and understand that 1st,before the correction. No way. You explaining something to people that will say what they continue to say because of the fast little buck.
      Hopefully the CEO and rest of the board of PKZ knows this, or we are out of luck.
      There is only one or two reasons for a sellor merger now! PKZ thinks there are less reserves than what we think, or they think the Kazakhstan government will stay on their case to bad to make an honest buck in Kazakhstan. anymore.

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