Still dead. Market is up nice today and this thing has been red already today. We really need to get that earnings report out. Even at this point if it's not as good as everyone hopes, it still gets us over the earnings report hurdle and lets people start trading it again. If we miss estimates, yes it will drop. The way this earnings season has gone so far, I think even if it slightly beats estimates, it is still going to drop some in the short term. I think it would have to beat estimates by about 3 cents a share for it to move up a little. If we hit .19 it means the .17 is safe. Even at 18 cents, it's probably still safe. That would help to as it would almost guarantee another 17 cent dividend.
Anyway, I am hoping they release the earnings today. Just tired of sitting around waiting.
I don't think there will be a beat on the estimates for EPS, but I think the book value should increase again. March 31 book value was $3.42. The MBS market increased in value in the second quarter, so I think there should be a 3% or so increase in book value, which runs it to $3.52. The existing shares are then backed by the $3.52. The new shares sold have another $3.60 backing the issue. The final number is between those.
Considering this has a high yield, it should continue to trade at 10 to 20% premium to the book value. That is a range of $3.76 to $4.10, for a book value of $3.42, and a range of $3.91 to $4.26 for a book value of $3.55.
I think the MBS market is heating up a bit, and I hope they are making good use of the last stock offering money, and buying right now.
cim has been waking up
look for a big long cim and short mfa as a hedge.
collect teh spread diff adn you should see a move in cim to mfa.
mfa is junk. yielding 9.5% (probably 10 to 12% after next divi announce but for now give me a break)
I don't think the stock price is lingering because of a lack of specific CIM news. I think it is the general market and economic uncertainty. As long as the economy MIGHT fall off another cliff, people are going to be leery of investing in a company that buys risky MBS's.
I do think the stock price will go up this week. There is always excitement around earnings news releases, and the dividend is paid this week. DRIP plans, as well as re-investing by individuals, should add a little buying pressure.