I useed to like CIM but now I decided not to buy back in.
1. Dividends have declined last few quarters
2. Share price is on downward trend. Even with
today being the last day to pick up the 0.14
dividend, Buyers are only paying 4.18-4.19 per
share. Recently on the day before ex div, Buyers were paying up to 4.32 per share.
3. Using the current 0.14 div x 4 quarters,=
0.56. Based on share price of 4.00, a 14% dividend rate. CIM was paying a div rate of 20% not too long ago & is now down to 14%.
4. Because CIM is not gov't backed & guaranteed
, unlike NLY & AGNC, CIM and other similiar REIT's generally need to pay a higher dividend rate to offset there having greater risk. At 14% dividend, why own CIM when you can buy safer REIT's (gov't guaranteed) paying higher dividend yields.
5. All the SPO's did not lead to higher dividends. Appears they only diluted EPS thereby lowering dividends
6. CIM paid out dividends in 2010 at slightly over 100% and was unsustainable. Appears the SPO's propped up the dividends rather than adding to earnings to offset the dilutions.
I believe CIM, at the 0.14 dividend per quarter, is worth approx 4.00 per share and no more for now,
Even at that price, I prefer a gov't backed/duaranteed ( and safer) RET like NLY or AGNC which pays the same or higher dividend rate
So is ARR really any different than CIM? I suppose the only reason I'd consider moving my CIM money to ARR is to make up for the difference in divi money lost with the drop to .14
Aside from that wondering if I should hang on longer, or make the switch to ARR.
Arr announced an SPO today @ 7.40 share and share
prices dropped to 7.16(recovered to 7.21 in after hours trading). Good news is people buying today well below the SPO price.ARR also pays .12 month
dividend (used to pay .36 quarter). High dividend
rate (much higher than CIM) and consistent dividends for a while. Like CIM, will additional shares cause a dilution and later on reduced dividends? 64k question. Personal opinion, those buying today at current prices (well below the SPO price) will do ok, at least for a few months.
Better investment than CIM? You decide.
The slope over that last year is positive.
This basically tells that the whole idea that CIM's stock price has been declining over the last year is FALSE, specially if you account for the amount of extra stock issued in that period.
Why do i care.. because i hold CIM stock and i don't like people bashing the stock with FALSE info.
so, Why do YOU care?
Actually CIM's share price is NOT on a downward trend. If you actually check the SMA 60 chart over a year, the price has risen slightly.
If you consider the amount of shares CIM has issued over the last year and the fact that no apparent price dilution has taken place, the increase in CIM's share price is obvious.
Sure, the dividend has decreased, but IMHO, the dividend % is still a great deal.
CIM and Annaly are still the best and safest companies in the mREIT space.. i wouldn't feel confortable putting my money on some MREIT newcomer that could go under any minute, just to chase a few percentage points of dividends.
Not really - I bought some wabtec some months ago and even with pay out the performance of this is way lower.
Growth generally beats income over time...by a lot.
Plus tax wise you don;t get cap gains rates on this.
It looks good just looking at the payout but it's really not with interest rate risk as well.
Just too many headwinds on this.
It's not that easy a business to understand either. Rail is MUCH easier for instance...or trucks...or industrial machinery.
And they have done very well over the decades.... and will likely do so. Even though it's cyclical.
Durable competitive model works.
The business model here is rather opaque...
i have both cim and nly.cim was bought just before the dec. div. at 4.25,only a few pennys from current.it payed (dec.)2.0 % more than nly.i see them as a wash.the day to day price swings don,t matter to me,its about yield,and anything over 12.0 % works for me. mho