Earnings expectations for the 3rd quarter call for revenues of $257.94 million and EPS of $0.58.
My prognosis is for a big miss on both metrics. Revenues will dip to $244 million based on a drop in new enrollments of 10%, and EPS will come in well below $0.50 as a result of higher instruction and SGA costs.
The HLC visit was scheduled for last week, however, it would be surprising if they disclose any information on the visit results until they at least receive a draft of the team report.
Any other guesses as to the quarterly announcement on the 5th?
I think the full impact of the new enrollment declines will be delayed somewhat as the existing students work their way through the system.
Are new enrollments only down 10%? Is this for the quarter or YTD?
My question is how could they lay off 400+ "admissions counselors", fight thru the bad press, have question marks about whether Asford will be accredited when these new enrollments graduate, and only lose one out of every ten applicants?
My forecast assumed a 10% drop from Sept. 2011 new enrollments of 22,000 students, for an estimate of 19,800 total new students for the quarter. The Company has an historic four year 22% attrition rate between quarters, so it was assumed that the continuing student population would approximate 72,200 students (June enrollment of 92,620 less 22%), and total enrollment would be around 92,000.
Your point that the new enrollment impact will be much greater than 10% is quite valid. The reason I used the lower estimate was to demonstrate that the consensus analyst outlook was way too optimistic. If your prognosis is correct, the results going forward get much worse.