There is no certainty over short time horizons. That's why I look at BPI over a longer time horizon - in this case a year. My reason for doing this is that it will take that long for:
The HLC to determine whether BPI's plan to meet "substantial presence" is adequate.
WASC to review the BLP resubmission for accreditation.
The DOJ investigation to make progress.
Other governmental investigations to move forward.
The class action suits from investors to take shape.
It would not surprise me if the students who were ill serviced by $200 in instructional spending don't go after BPI.
Sometime during the next year, the "Post Harkin" economics to reveal themselves (fewer students / more instructors, which will mean lower growth and profits (perhaps in next earnings call).
Other things may come out of the woodshed. The qui tam suit you referenced was ongoing and undisclosed upon the DOJ announcement. There is no way to know what other things are underway with potentially negative ramifications for BPI.
My experience has been that investors tend to evalaute a stock based upon its prior trading ranges, even when the economics of the underlying business have markedly changed, which makes the fall slower than would otherwise be expected.