Not that I questioned your numbers, but as part of my DD, I ran the numbers also and confirmed your NAV at approximately $15.28 (depending on actual gain for each sale). And yes, you are right on the money ... explains why the insiders are still buying. At today's prices, a 75% discount to NAV, and toss in an 11.4% dividend (at today's prices) while we wait for the recovery. No position yet, but as soon as it looks like the stock has bottomed, I may well back up the truck.
Since they don't report 2nd qtr earnings until around August 10th I don't think there is any reason to buck the crude trend - I have been adding to my position at lower prices and only taking on losses. My current thinking is to add to my position only if I see a break in the oil price. On a positive side, since you also ran the numbers, would you be surprised if the stock quickly went to $15 after the earnings report?
Frankly, I don't see a connection between CODI and crude ... but obviously folks are selling CODI for some reason. Maybe its crude, maybe it's being sold off like most everything else. My guess is it being dumped more because it's private equity and fear of bad loans, even though CODI isn't a traditional p/e lender.
I just took a look at historical prices (to 2006), and $15/pps looks like the median and average. I wish I had a chart comparing NAV/pps over time, but I'm too lazy to build it.
Based on historical prices, it should probably be close to $15 now. I don't believe that others haven't done the same calculation as you and I ... I just don't understand it.
I'm not going to start buying until I see evidence of a bottom in CODI stock, using stockcharts.com, rsi and MACD. I might miss the bottom by 3-5%, but don't need more knife cuts on my hands. So far, the chart remains in freefall and it isn't even oversold yet. Good luck.