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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

  • ehpb1 ehpb1 Nov 6, 2009 10:20 AM Flag

    volatility

    Why has this stock become so volatile lately? Hope has nothing to do with the Greenwich scandal.

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    • Let us know your thoughts. BTW, Line got a "strong sell" from Zacks.

    • Thanks again for the kind remarks, but I'm just a little obsessed with measuring the return of my money. Certainly not an analyst. And never believe anything you read on the internet.

      Nice to see we beat by a dime today. I'll have to listen to the CC recording later or read the transcript, and I want to see the 10-Q to see exactly where/how we beat.

      GLTA

    • I defer to you. You are a much better analyst and I can get lured too easily by a dividend. Thank you.

    • A while back I looked at CQP, before the terminal was done and before there was any income. I was troubled by the (then) business model of paying high distributions against -0- income, year after year ... In other words, all income to shareholders was truly return of capital. At the time, this didn't seem like a good business model to me (ie., Bernie Madoff). I could pay myself a distribution from my own savings, and take out the middleman! Now that the terminal is operating, and it is making a profit, I would have to analyze it in depth. However, my non-retirement account is fully invested now so DD on new stocks is not on my list of to-do's.

      From a fundamental viewpoint, I would weigh carefully the impact that the USA glut of NG (currently and for the foreseeable future) may have on LNG imports. I think your LINE will benefit from the glut because it means more volume to transport and more money from storage, but I frankly don't know what if any impact the glut will have on LNG imports. From what I have read, NG storage is maxed out, and in the recent CC, Enterprise/Duncan talked about the number of NG wells shut-in because there was too much supply vs. demand. With US NG at less than $6, can the cost to acquire, transport and offload, be competitive?

      I would be interested to hear your conclusions from your DD.

    • Not off topic. Talking about shares with common denominator. Thank you.
      BTW, looking at CQP.

    • I will look at your picks guys. CODI is my largest single holding. I own 10,725 with the average of $7.92.

      Here is my list for you to look at. Some of these you may want to look under the hood at. I own or have owned most of these at times for various reasons.

      LUK, L, SEB, OTTR, PICO, MKL, FFH, WTR, LPHI, TPL, TRC, ANDE, PSEC, BX, BKE, NWLI, PAYX, HNZ, MO, DGS, BIP, BAM, BARE, CRESY, CDZI, WVVI, FEED, AGM, ACAS, ESGR, SAFT, GLRE, JOE, FCE-A, BWEL.PK, MIC, STON, CSWC, IEP

    • Looks like we have similar lists. You have AGNC instead of my hospital REIT, and LINE instead of my pipeline (DEP). Great minds think alike!

      I recall when I researched pipelines, I looked closely at LINE, but don't recall why I picked DEP over LINE. LINE is currently distributing more than DEP (10% v 8%). If LINE moves to the means, that would mean you probably have more share price appreciation in the short term, than I will see. In the short term, I'm guessing DEPs share price will be pretty flat because I don't think the market is willing to price DEP high enough to push the yield much below 8%. But I like the fact that DEP will likely be increasing its distribution every quarter for as far as the eye can see. (Distribution is currently covered 140% by free cash flow, up from 120% in Q1 '09 and 130% in Q2.) Cash flow just keeps growing and growing and the conservative (IMO) mgmt underdistributes which (IMO) means lots of room for slow and steady future distribution increases.

      Sorry to post off topic here.

      GLTA.

    • Thank you. I own ARCC,CODI,HTGC and PSEC. Also, the aforementioned AGNC and LINE.

    • I wouldn't read too much into it. Everything on my board has had 10% swings these past two weeks. That is the price we pay for (a) high volatility stocks and (b) lots of uncertainty in the market.

      My $.02 on earnings: CODI will beat by $.02-.04, with very modest gains in the top line and similarly modest gains in the bottom as the result of slightly better revenue and better margins (cost cutting). This morning's employment numbers reported a very small uptick in temp workers which won't show up on Staffmark's earnings, but maybe signals a bottom and gradual improvement. Ditto for the small uptick in factory hours worked, although I suspect that is mostly the result of cash for clunkers.

      GLTA.

 
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