"Based on our improved prospects and our generation of Cash Flow thus far this year, we believe that we are well positioned to surpass our previously announced guidance for the full year 2009"
With a little bit of improvement in the operating environment for portfolio businesses, CODI will be covering the distribution (even considering the offering shares) with cash available for distribution. WITHOUT INVESTING A PENNY OF THE OFFERING PROCEEDS. Yet. ;-)
In fact, given the fact that costs for laid off employees extend out a couple of quarters (think of severence expenses, etc) CODI will probably cover the distribution with cash even if business conditions at portfolio companies just hold steady. Modest cost improvements will probably continue to trickle in throughout the end of the year.
Know what that means? That means that accretion from acquisitions will be all gravy to our distributions. That's a much better circumstance that I had expected in the middle of the year.
I just went back and checked the transcript for Q4 '08 CC. Q4 '08 Halo income was $4.3m or $.117 share (fully diluted to 11/16/09). As we know, Halo is very seasonal and Q4 is the big quarter. I am assuming no major seasonality (plus or minus) with the other portfolio companies in Q4, thus all else being equal, about $.34 CAD in Q4, before Halo. I seriously doubt that Halo will meet 2008 numbers and the Halo income (after cost cutting) will be something less than $.117/share. Your guess as to Halo's benefit to Q4 CAD, is probably better than mine.
Analysts are still at $.32-$.34, but there is no future for them if they start raising estimates now when so many things could change between now and February. (If I were an analyst, I would review my numbers after Manpower announces, which still gives enough time to revise before CODI announces.)
I was blown away by the staement affirming 2009 guidance...a really super performance considering the headwinds being encountered by the Staffmark unit. All you can say is that the Ford Raptor program must be buying Fox Racing Shox like crazy! Whatever the reason is, it's great to see confidence like that.
Recall their ealier guidance was for 21MM to 24.5MM 2009 cash available for distribution. Based on 1h09 results, that meant that they expected around 19MM 2h09 CAD.
The reason I say any statement regarding exceeding that target is an 'understatement' is that they just recorded 3q09 CAD of 11.7MM. And Halo is seasonally strongest toward the end of th year. Based on 3q results, exceeding guidance seems like kind of a lock.