Bought 10,000 shares of Medical Properties Trust for $10.48 per share a few months ago. The stock has appreciated by 60% and is now selling for 17.5 times current earnings or 15.8 times forward earnings projections.
Guidance is for $1.10 funds from operations in 2013 which under current company policy qualifies for a 10% dividend increase to .88 cents per share which will probably happen at the end of this quarter.
While MPW is firing on all cylinders and has an excellent future, it seems fully priced at this time.
It's not pricey yet. It's fairly valued in the $16 to $18 range. There isn't any comparable REIT to guage it from. Above $18 it will start to be too high, IMHO, but I base that on forecast cash flow. I think we'll see a small dividend increase this year.
I lightened up a little with a nice profit, bought some WTR I believe water is the next big thing! When the market corrects I would buy back MPW for $15. I owned OHI a few years back sold it for a nice profit wanted to buy it back but it just ran I dont like chasing but looking back I should have plus they raised the divi every year! I see the same for MPW!
for awhile now, I have thought the ENTIRE MARKET is pricey; however, with each new week we hit new highs - how is one to exit? it's like sitting on the sidelines while the "cards or dice are hot"...lol, but I truly do have a difficult time selling. To do what?!?!?!? where are you gonna put it "until the next bottom"??? paying down the mortgage doesn't even make sense since I'm already in 15 yr at 3%! I may put in stop-loss orders, but will not sell out simply because I think I've timed it right; have been wrong before. If I'm stopped out at a great price, then so be it. Congrats to anyone (even those out at $16.29...lol) who has sold and made money on MPW - fine company in a great industry, where the acute & rehab niches will survive imo. I am more worried about seniors currently, but MPW does not go there. Not sure we'll see hospitals shuttering doors anytime soon, but just my opinion. GLTA!
You are right everything seems pricey. I sold my MPW and added to some stocks that seemed Not so pricey (Like INTC and LINE) . You never lose if you take profits. So I don't regret selling at 16.29 and taking my profits. New companies going up also. I think it was Warren Bufett who said one of the secrets of his success was that he ALWAYS sold TOO soon. If I want to sell for aprofit, I don't need to squeeze the extra 10% out. Meanwhile still about 85% invested. Have some cash. We'll see what happens. I think there will be more buying opportunities later this year.
I agree with you that MPW and others are getting pricey. I even had purchased some under 9 and so it had doubled in a short time. I sold all. I like MPW, but not at this price. Perhaps if there is a pullback later this year I might be in again. I also own TCAP, OHI which have had similar run ups ( but not 100%). They have good history of dividend increases and so far I am holding those. MPW no increase in many years. Hard to find good buys now. Recently added INTC and Line when hit 52 week low. Good luck to all. MPW at all time hi, so everyone happy
maybe I am alone in that I believe MPW is poised for new highs to the $18.50 mark, but with a divvy increase could see $20, before a pullback. I will likely stop out at the $19.00 mark, but nothing to hold this one back, imo. They are just in a very UNIQUE niche market for health care REITs, imo. I am anxious to see what's up management's sleeve re: acquisitions (diversification? maybe some hospices or other business that complements acute care?), as they may find something VERY profitable they can afford moving forward that would insure higher FFO, etc. Again, it's a waiting game, but I would not be surprised AT ALL (hint, Mr. Aldag, et al...) to see them announce something soon re: a nice-sized acquisition or divvy increase (I think I gave it a few months a few weeks back?). Here's hopin' I'm right.