Well, I don't think it a good idea to apply the general tech stock weakness to EXTR at this moment. True, most tech stocks lowered their guidance, and saw hair cut. But, the strategy in this weak economy is not to buy tech stocks in general, and then worry about the broad economic weakness or slump in capital spending. Rather, the strategy in this kind environment is to find those companies that can recover first, and can buck the trend. There are always some companies that are in some upbeat market segments. One of this segments is metro networking, another one is enterprise networking. EXTR are right there. This is the difference. Other networking stocks are down, but that does not mean EXTR should follow suit. Take another example: RFMD, today up more than 10% after yesterday's CC. There are always some stocks that can buck the down market trend because their market position is much better than most of others.
Yeah, look at rfmd who bounced right off it's downTREND line from 5/22, and at the present is forming a shooting star. And they RAISED guidance! What if extr doesn't raise? maybe a short pop, but the trendline is THE LAW until taken out. BTW, I really,really think brcm is gonna get KILLED tonight!!
If EXTR lowers the guidance, then there will be selloff. We all know that. If not, it will fly high, and we all know that. The issue is this: whether the guidance will be upped or lowered is not secret to somebody or some group. At least, the CEO and CFO should already have the ideas of what they are going to say in the CC. So, those who also in the know should have been doing something by now. Right now, the volume for EXTR is low. So, you can figure that out... It means there is no panic sell-off, even though there is no strong buying too. So far, my take is this: if the guidance is good, those in the know do not have to pump it up now. They can load up around $22 today quietly. But, if the guidance will be bad, then those in the know would have come out and dump a lot decisively... Right now, we haven't see the high volume dumping.