Since a large amount of their sales are in the U.S., in dollars, they benefit from currency translation when the dollar is strong, as it has been recently. Maybe enough benefit to offset the slower sales in the U.S.
For the first time in a couple of years, this stock has the potential to double in 3-5 years. At $90 that just wasn't the case. $6.50 eps in a few years x 16 p/e= $100~ is my goal.
Another plus, most of their aged inventory was made years ago, when commodity costs were lower...but they get to sell it forward, at higher prices reflective of higher commodity prices, even though it didn't really cost them more to produce what they currently sell. A nice business model.
the low UK pound should help. obviously the Street is negative but I am not sure why. I guess I can see a reduction in purchases during a global recession, but in the long term this company seems strong to me. If tobacco is defensive, alcohol must be as well. Maybe the big ticket bottles will lose volume, but I bet management will be proactive.
I will wait to buy at a lower price, the price action is terrible.