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Immunomedics Inc. Message Board

  • scholaranthro scholaranthro Jul 9, 2013 11:17 AM Flag

    This is the next $30 biotech!: PART II more

    I checked on Ameritrade's Advanced chart. It did hit more than $40 in 2000. It can happen again on any breaking positive news. No guarantee, of course.

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    • From your mouth to GOD'S EARS!!! I'd sure be sitting pretty in my old age. LOL

    • I was an owner then. That was a move because AMGN licensed emab for NHL, if my recollection is correct. Subsequently, AMGN renigged on the agreement, they did not intend to complete the deal. Thank goodness, the Doc, who was CEO at the time (and a major shareholder), eventually managed to get the license back from them, cuz emab is what UCB licensed for lupus. After several years, they figured out that emab might have some value in an immune-system disease. Remember that $40 was during a period when Greenspan had created an incredible bubble in the market due to Y2K fears, and everything ballooned at that time, so if the same circumstances happened today, a) no bubble, and b) look at market volume, not nearly as large as it was in 2000. Today is a lot different, we probably wouldn't hit $40 with the same circumstances.

      OTH, today we have about 15% short position, which WE DIDN'T have in 2000, so that may more than compensate for the other conditions, and we could be back up there. The short position is essentially the same size as the last secondary offering, so if the secondary dilution of 10M shares took us from about 4 to about 2.5, you can figure the short position has the same effect over time. (I.e., figure getting rid of them will lead to a 1.5/2.5 = 60% increase in share price. E.g., if you think normally we'd hit 15 on lupus approval, short squeeze might go to 25.)

      Just my opinion, but I know none of the posters here have been in the stock that long. All the long term holders departed yahoo board for the silicon investor message board where you can't hype and can't bash, just one username, no aliases, etc. Leads to more info. I get some very good leads from that board because 20 people trolling the net for info is way better than one lone investor.

      • 3 Replies to southcherryassociation
      • learn how to spell...the word is reneged

      • None of this attributes any value to anything else. Cmab for PC will be a small market compared to lupus. But it is being fast tracked, and the successful completion of the FDA-requested P1B allows them to proceed directly to P3. This will not CURE cancer, indeed, one of their own newer ADC drugs may eventually make cmab obsolete. But in the meantime, it offers 6 months to 2 years (we have seen some patients do that well) beyond the initial PC death sentence, and most of that increase in life is with excellent quality of life, which is what excites the FDA. For that alone, it will be prescribed and reimbursed by insurance, obamacare or not.

        Analysts are now including emab and cmab in their analyses to come up with reiterated Buy ratings.

        Analysts are NOT yet, to my knowledge, including any contribution from ADC deals in their calculations, and a deal could come in that arena at any time (I expect something this summer, consultants don't take jobs that take forever to pay off, the guy working this for them has to produce to eat! and preserve his reputation). This might include an upfront payment and interim payments, but the licensing fees have to be way out for this stuff, as it isn't even in P1 yet. But it's hot hot area because pharma needs deals, and IMMU is one of the only uncommitted targets in this field.

      • Another point to consider is what happened to HGSI stock with lupus approval for bmab. Although bmab was questionable if you really looked at the P3 and P2 data (barely better than placebo using really wimpy measurement conditions), because lupus is such a big market, the stock went to $30+. I don't know what the market cap was on HGSI, but it was way more than IMMU is. So I would expect a bigger effect on the share price. UCB Pharma, who is doing the P2 and P3, has outlicensed one of its in-house developed drugs that is at same stage as emab--completion of successful P2. Their Press release said they want the money to focus on key opportunities. I.e., THEY think (and who would know better?) emab will be a blockbuster for them, so they are willing to throw one of their own children to the wolves. Just sayin'.

    • I think any short seller dumb enough to read these comments is going to be bailing this afternoon.

 
IMMU
3.24-0.18(-5.26%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT

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