$4.77 is 'The Bottom'.
Rocky woke me up this morning, banging on the pool patio sliding glass door. He was dripping wet, excited and out of breath, having just completed an extended 5 week lung capacity test at the bottom of the pool. He was acting aphanitic, bordering on obsidian. He made me log on and do some calculations, charting and risk/reward projections for the overall shipping industry. Finally, he gave me a ticker symbol and ordered me to buy it. TRMD.
He says Torm is a very respected company, been in business forever and is has bottomed, with RSI of 18 is oversold and stupidly cheap. I'm in, (for Rockys IRA) at $4.80. I might even buy some for myself.
However, I do wonder if his discordant Plutons are acting up again, and perhaps should call the cerebral geologist for an appointment.
Rebuying TRMD on extreme hated and oversold conditions. RSI 10.6
Rocky nods reluctantly in approval.
I'm out, as of Tuesday, (forgot to post that over here in real time)
Cours, why isn't Rocky going all obsidian on us with GSL's current RSI? Grossly oversold RSI at this point around 18? Counterparty risk all but eliminated for the near term, healthy and getting even stronger container market,plan A and B ready to be enacted to resume dividend..... Feels like a short-term 10% bounce coming our way quickly. I was out 5000 shares (3% of total long position) just to say I'm not THAT greedy at 7.51-7.49 but back in and then some at 6.15.
Karnac in Training's 10% pop happened more quickly than expected!! I'm generally not a fan of RSI indicators on such a low volume stock, but in this case, the sell down felt irrational given the positive forces aligning in GSL's favor. Starting to believe that valuations can't help but fall in our favor next month. Even so we still need to get out from under the 10M quarterly amortization to fully realize the renewed dividend potential but the process starts with getting through the valuation hurdle. I have a sense of even more strongly renewed optimism given this bounce for GSL.
Well, part of my increased interest in TRMD, (when it bottomed on Tuesday at $4.77) also correlated to the Japan nuclear issue, with early realization that they, and perhaps even the EU, will need a higher and increasing clean fuel/diesel, fuel oil supply, with ongoing refinery, power and infrastructure problems, and the desire to rebuild. The knee-jerk selling reaction to oversold RSI 18 levels was unwarranted, and overblown, considering the rate environment and overall charter levels have been known for quite some time.
TRMD has a high exposure to spot, and when it changes, it can change very fast, I have seen it before.
You guys might remember me calling bottom in WNR a while back in the low $4s,
and that call was prudent from the refinery asset valuation perspective, and rock bottom/low volume crack spreads, with high inventory's that couldn't go much higher. The big boys were buying VLO (which was good also, especially for the E plant exposure), and neglecting baby WNR.
I couldn't stand it. I admit it. Rocky was watching MSNBC and started jibber-jabbering about nuclear radiation and anti-contamination protocols not being adhered to in the Fukushima reactor plant mishap. Something about them being radio-ill-logical 'idiots' also storing and concentrating all the used fuel rod assembly's at the plant location unnecessarily, when they have had 30+ years to find an alternate safe(r) long term disposal location. He starting quoting radioactive nuclide half-lives off the Mae West curve, fission fragment probability percentages, and salt water corrosion, oxygen pitting and crevice corrosion calculations on stainless steel and Inconel 625 accelerating stress-corrosion cracking resistance permeation's to chloride ions, and I just had to stop him, lol. He says this was not about reactor operational safety, but the failure to properly dispose of the radioactive waste. Anyway, he is now on the bottom of the Aquarium gurgling to the suckerfish. I told him to be nice and make friends with the other rocks in the tank, but he believes all the other rocks are brainless because they have holes in their heads that the fish swim thru.
Hey, don't mess with Rocky! He is hard to live with, and a stubborn ole coot, but he is Brilliant, in his own way, lol. Now he will just want more manicure and pedicures.
By Gelu Sulugiuc
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Danish shipper may come “very
close” to breaching liquidity covenants in 2011 as op. cash flow
will be close to zero, Danske says in analyst note.
Torm capex, debt repayments will require cash outflow of $378m *If Torm targets equity ratio of 20-25%, it would require $225m-$340m in new equity, Danske says