First, drydocks. We have 6 scheduled for remainder of 2011 (or was it 7?..will have to check), and 6 in 2012. These involve real cost and opportunity cost. Actual outlays as outlined in the 20-F and on the call are $1.2M of cost + bunker fuel (don't think this is included in $1.2, but will have to go back and check). Bunkers were $90k in example on call. Plus we have opportunity cost of 12 days (on average) of foregone revenue. Our average day rate is $25.3K, so this is $300K per drydock. So each drydock should have a $1.6M negative impact on cash. These are clustered over 2011/2012, so you can see why the might be a bit more conservative with cash here given these cash needs and the economic uncertainty.
callith, it depends. If GSL was seriously weakened in some way to only support a $0.20 dividend when they decide to reinstate, then the stock price would probably not move much from its current state at $3.50
I understand your point in questioning my logic to come up with the $4.40 basis for short term stock appreciation. I admit it has flaws, but I was just trying to be conservative in my hope for what will happen to my GSL investment. I'm expecting GSL to continue to *improve* its finances and pay off debt and continue to generate cash. If they continue to execute and do what Ian is saying, then I think $4.40 would be a conservative "floor" for the stock price in Q1 2012. If people think I'm an idiot for typing this, then so be it. Wouldn't be the first time.