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Global Ship Lease, Inc. Message Board

  • edgetrader2001 edgetrader2001 Aug 13, 2012 11:01 AM Flag

    Net of charters, int exp and drydocks

    geez -- this analyst from Europacific or wherever is a noob.

    GSL nice enough to do the math for us on slide 15.

    Total run rate loss from lower charters: -$10.6M

    Drydocking and interest expense reduction: +$14.1M

    Net? +$3.5M

    Not bad.

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    • jdfunnell@sbcglobal.net jdfunnell Aug 27, 2012 12:10 AM Flag

      The schedule you created by asking edge to ask a question while you did not. Get in line, or don't bring it up............Dave

    • Edge,

      For those of us unable to listen to the conference call can you give a summary of what was said? And, just as important, your analysis.

      Thanks

      • 1 Reply to mghaynes_1
      • Not much new...except, as prior message stated, they laid out the net effect of the lower charter rates + the interest rate swap expiration + lower drydocks. Net-net we come out ahead for now. Share price doesn't seem to appreciate this enough (in my opinion)

        Again, Ian was reticent about any future dividends, or the LTV test. Gave pretty good confirmation that Nov 2012 test will not be passed (as we all expected). DRZ analyst was trying to probe whether extension will be for 6 months. Personally, I think we should all set our expectations for 12 month waiver, then a restart of dividend at end of 2013 or Q1 2014. I just think that will give them enough cushion to feel comfortable again. The only exception is if the 2014 orderbook is so thin that it gets discounted in our re-rates in spring of 2013. I wouldn't bank on that. (DRZ analyst was also trying to get color on 2014 orderbook -- which was a good question, and was on my list to ask, but he got there first).

        So, other than that we have few (2?) drydocks in 2013, 2014 then none in 2015. No debt maturities until 2016. And, only the two re-rates in early 2013.

        Now that we've passed peak season we might see continued weakening of charter rates. This is no mystery as liners try to manage the over-supply by reducing fleet size. Non-operating owners without charters will take the pain. However, this is creating a coiled spring which should benefit GSL tremendously if global demand ever picks up again (heaven forbid). In the meantime, the spread between shipping rates and charter rates is beneficial to CMA CGM and will create a stronger counterparty. Patience remains the order of the day.

 
GSL
4.24+0.08(+1.92%)Dec 24 1:03 PMEST

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