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Global Ship Lease, Inc. Message Board

  • coursonc coursonc Jan 2, 2013 2:19 PM Flag

    Happy NY

    Happy new year my fellow GSL'ers!

    My value pick for a double+ in 2013 is CECO. I am in at $2.90 and $3.50 levels for a 12+ month hold.

    Coursonc

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    • Not that anybody probally cares, but I again like the current pricing, and deem it to be favorable risk/reward commodity type play that Avalon (AVL) presents.
      I sold out at over $7 previously,
      http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/searchview/?q=avl&in=b&bn=3dd91f0a-6872-3e49-bf24-5818576fbbb2&sa=&sm=&sbd=&sdf=dd%2Fmm%2Fyyyy&sdt=dd%2Fmm%2Fyyyy
      when it was getting 'toppy', and have been watching it and the price action for past 18months. Current price of $1.37 is very cheap and smells like a Costco polish dog.
      coursonc

    • Leave it to Mr. Courson to identify a predatory firm with a business model under existential threat as his "value pick" for the year. I hear gun manufacturers and payday lenders are a good buy for 2013, too...

      • 2 Replies to sfi_watcher
      • SFI Actually not a predatory business at all. I think one sector that is being overlooked in their education pipeline is the Le Cordon Bleu culinary arts Schools. Thats a premium name. These are undervalued. They are not even valuing the extensive cooking and baking equipment each school is equipped with, such as the commercial ranges, ovens, hood equipment, smokers, grillers, bread baking, etc. The Street is pricing for failure. They had almost $5.50 in cash, basicly little to no long term debt, with a large sharebuyback plan already authorized. Go look at where they were buying before, and they are now just sitting on this cash hoarde. I think they buy soon, because they were waiting till 2013 to get a clearer budget view. CBRE, which is the largest commercial RE firm in the world, is now managing all the properties, which cuts cost on the backend, better lease negociation, lower energy costs, higher efficiency, etc.
        They have not had the major accredation issues that some of the other 'for profits' have had, and have remodeled their placement tracking to ensure new students have high chance of finishing the school, and also placing into verified employment afterwards. This is the important externship part that the government watches.
        They are bringing back the degree program, which instead of the certificate cost around $17K, will be $33k. Its a longer program, but attracts more serious minded and career oriented students, who you have less problems with from the get-go, and who have higher chance of success also.
        They have cut costs, and shut underperforming campuses', trimmed employees, and shifted some operations to other campuses.
        I think its a cycle, sure, but when you can buy into the business model way below cash, and insanely below 'book', with very high probability that management is soon going to buy back tonnes of shares, and knowing the back end is now managed by the Global RE management leader, and knowing this kind of education HAS to be hands on, cannot be obtained just sitting at home like some of the other 'technical' training degree courses (I wont mention Devry), its a no brainer to buy at the capitulation costco bottom and wait for Macy pricing to return.

      • I'm with Coursonc on this one...been on my watch list for a while, but haven't gotten comfortable enough with where the gov't is headed...though I do think the odds are in their favor since some of the rulings have been struck down in court. I like that CECO is negative enterprise value. As long as the negative operating leverage from lower enrollments doesn't work against them. No position.

        Also -- gun manufacturers (I've looked) are not a particularly good bet here, in my opinion. Google a graph of gun sales....they are highly cyclical and we are at a multi-year highs.

    • interesting pick, Cours; do you like the cash per share or do you see their business coming back??

 
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