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RealD Inc. Message Board

  • nanocaplover nanocaplover Jul 20, 2010 2:02 PM Flag

    Is RealD the real deal?

    Looks like an IPO with long term prospects.
    Sales growth has been impressive but no earnings since 2008.

    Might make a nice move quickly but a lot of folks are probably watching the stock right now.

    What I like (data from Prospectus & seekingalpha.com):

    1 Sales growth last five quarters: 208, 691, 191, 490, and 207%

    2 Sales for year ending March 26, 2010 $149.8M
    Year Ending 2009: $39.7M ($110.1M increase)

    3 Has enabled more screens than competitors (Dec. 25, 2009): RealD: 4286 versus Dolby: 1960, Xpand: 1560, MasterImage: 500, IMAX: 300.

    4. 3D looks to have a bright and growing future


    What I don't like:

    1 No earnings since 2008

    2 Expected decrease in revenues in Q ending June 25, 2010 compared to March 25, 2010 (from Prospectus)

    3 Possible further dilution resulting from the exercise of options and warrants and further issuance of shares

    4. Unclear how many shares are issued and outstanding. I think it ends up being 47.6M but there is a 1.5 split to consider and a lot of factors making the prospectus difficult to decipher.

    5 Price to Sales (assuming 47.6M shares, $150M sales)
    $16/sh = 5.1
    $19/sh = 6.0
    $20/sh = 6.3 (this is a bit high)

    6 History of 3D is hot and cold

    This one looks to have legs based on the 3D story and impressive sales growth. It should move fast depending on sales and earnings growth.

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