It blows my mind on how these big investment banks keep reiterating their buys on IMAX with high price targets in the 30's. I mean its clear that RealD is taking tons of its market share and I mean RealD has agreements with single theatre companies to install more screens than IMAX has in total. RealD has around 19000 screens at this point and IMAX has what about 600 "systems" which are basically just overpriced huge screens with really loud sound systems and a ticket that costs double that of a regular ticket and about 3/2 compared to a RealD ticket. Come on guys lets get real here, RealD has beat earnings estimates in the last 3 quarters and IMAX has missed in the last 3 quarters. What else do we need to see here? They might not be referred to as "direct" competitors but seriously they're competing with the same movies and the same box office and if one is clearly beating the other on earnings I think there's a pretty concrete answer to that.
i like both companies and as the economy picks up and since they offer a premium experience they should continue to make good moneyfrom the rich people who have lots of money.. i see both of these companies in the coming years doubling or tripling minimum from here. i see imax at 100 and rld at 60 to 70 in the years to come. hold tight to your shares. each has a descent amount of upside unless of course either one of them gets bought out. i am really surprised time warner hasn't made an offer to imax to buy them out or start a large position in it when it was trading at a lot lower. disclosure: long rld, but imax is good too. it just has a much higher p/e at the moment. i look at rld as a pretty cheap call option i plan to hold for a long time. i am long at $12.40. just my opinion.
All I know is that I vividly recall my first IMAX experience; I lived in Chicago and took in a viewing of Batman Begins. I was so blown away by the experience that I looked into the company and bought in at $4/$5 a share. Since then, I've added to my position at $16 and $18. I only wish that I had more significant sums to invest with back then.
I think IMAX is viewed as an attractive "out of home" movie experience what with everyone having a flat screen HD or plasma these days. 3D has been around for years (think Creature from the Black Lagoon), but I don't think it's got a smaller overall market and target audience. I for one wear glasses and find the additional 3D glasses uncomfortable. Not saying that is a reason not to invest, but other individuals I've spoken to tend to agree with me.
Obviously, I am long on IMAX.
I've got your answer. RLD is tethered strictly to 3D content so essentially it is a one-trick-pony. IMAX is the premium movie experience in either 2D or 3D. If 3D falls out of favor in Hollywood IMAX will still be in the game while RLD will be on the sidelines and possibly out of business.
Having said all of that; at current levels I think RLD offers more potential upside than IMAX does as RLD is grossly undervalued here under $9/share. But it also offers more downside risk due to its reliance on 3D.
Disclosure: I am long IMAX and also own options on RLD.
See I know what your saying there and although what you said may look good on paper, I gotta rain on your parade and tell you to look at the 10-Q from last quarter and in that I want you to look at the number of IMAX systems operating and look at the number that are 3D and the ones that are not. In fact I'll just tell you and you can look it up after if you think im lying. But out of the 583 systems operating there are only 89 of them that are not 3D of some kind and the other 494 are 3D and really expensive not that great of 3D. I don't think IMAX 3D or RealD are significantly better than the other but I know i'd rather pay 13 to see RealD instead of the 20 for IMAX. Prices vary and IMAX is always more expensive and unless its a big time action thriller theres no chance people will even give IMAX a chance. That sounded harsh but it had been building up in me for a while. What do you think tho cus i know your on both boards and see what all the imax people are always saying.
RealD has been oversold. I see this company with a lot of potentials same as IMAX. Going forward, it is not about domestic box office anymore, internationally, i see big chance for both companies.
I long both IMAX and RLD.