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G. Willi Food-International Ltd. Message Board

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  • zolie48 zolie48 Dec 18, 2007 3:10 PM Flag

    Thin volume

    Volume is picking up-best vol in two weeks.

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    • dennisnolan Dec 18, 2007 3:18 PM Flag

      Z I agree the volume is looking better today but to keep it in perspective(I was 1/3rd of the shares bought so far today)that is why we will not see any moves over $7 until we see volume of 100k average or more. Technical traders can't even quantify trading this thin. when we start trading volume which is valued at 500k per day then we stand a chance to get noticed by a normal retail trading environment.We are several months away from that level even if next quarter is blockbuster.But keep the faith this is a stock with a good story!

      • 1 Reply to dennisnolan
      • WILC remains far "under the radar" and IMO will do, until there is a catalyst for change. That catalyst is coming, but not in the next few months.

        Personally, I don't foresee an upcoming blockbuster quarter as diary prices continue very high and that was an important factor driving gross margin down to 20% last quarter. I can't see anything that will change that in the short-term. That leads me to believe that we'll stay in the doldrums for a while.

        One has to have a long-term perspective on all this, but 2008 should be good for all of us longs as:

        a) Sales will rise very dramatically over 2007 levels. That will catch analyst's attention.
        b) A global economic slowdown could lead to lower raw materials costs and margins returning to close to 2006 levels. Especially, in 2008, each margin point will be worth almost 1MM in pretax earnings. Thankfully, we're pretty immune to any negative impact of any upcoming recession.
        c) Assuming management does its job - and they will - we'll see accretive earnings from the acquisitions.

        And then once THESE things happen and the market cap approaches $100,000,000, a lot of funds will begin to notice us. Success will breed success, and the stock price will go up. I still predict a triple in 2008.

        My recommendation is to continue to acquire on weakness, be very patient, and then hang on for a very pleasant ride through the next few years.

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