Unfortunately, although they had a solid last quarter, the announcement of the acquisition of Opnet, although immediately accretive, threw analysts a curve ball not knowing what to make of the timing so close to the quarter's earnings announcement. Investors & analysts feel burned. The stock moves up on solid earnings only to get slammed by the acquisition news. So now, any negative news remotely related to RVBD or its industry, and the shorts dominate and there are no long term investors to speak of. I think this is a real growth play for 2013 although at times it's difficult to keep the faith.
Yours is as sensible an explanation as any I've seen. I think the aapl effect is also at play here. After aapl's collapse, a miss by any tech sends investors running for the nearest exit like their hair is on fire.