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Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. Message Board

  • max4172 max4172 Aug 25, 2003 9:19 AM Flag

    morning questions...

    So Val what is TSA doing to improve same store sales? How are they going about capturing the women shoppers? What are they doing to increase sales per square foot? Why is there average retail price points heading south?

    What's going to happen to revenues once they start closing stores? They aren't growing the ones that are open now. The merger is going to effect them big time 4th quarter and into the new year. Ask TSA buyers what new products they have brought in, ask them how much open to buy dollars they have for 4th quarter.

    Do you know? I do...

    Good luck Val- I am stepping above the fray.

    One last word...
    Fundamentals.

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    • I begin with the current est. EPS of $1.95 for this year and $2.32 for next, and use an average growth rate of 17.2% over next 5 yrs (consensus is 17%) and declining afterwards. This gives 10 yr EPS growth as follows:
      2003 $1.95 19.0%
      2004 $2.32 18.0%
      2005 $2.74 17.0%
      2006 $3.20 16.0%
      2007 $3.72 16.0%
      2008 $4.31 14.0%
      2009 $4.91 14.0%
      2010 $5.60 12.0%
      2011 $6.27 12.0%
      2012 $7.03 12.0%
      2013 $7.87 12.0%

      I then apply a future PE of 16x, which is reasonable given a 12% grower. Then I apply a discount rate of 12.5% to get present value of $39. This is a trivial calculation and it was all done in Excel. I consider my assumptions to be middle of the road, neither wildly optimistic nor pessimistic. If you are more of either, your assesment of fair value will be higher or lower. I bought at $29, considering I had a reasonable margin of safety in case any of my assumptions were wrong.

    • I've never seen so much garbage-one guy thinks he's a value investor, the other guy compares DKS to Cisco and Dell-there's really nothing constructive here just a bunch of phonies---now ACKOLBERT-using your calculations how do you arrive at a 39$ intrinsic value? I have to hear this and if anyone else wants to take lessons, sit back and take notes as I just might call someone out. I'm going to start with you!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Good one, forgot about the drug test.

      I think we should make a new id and call it some sort of Wilson and start having conversation with Val, like his sidekick. It would be a riot! I think he might go over the edge...

      I bet he's driving down the road cursing somebody out he has road rage so bad. Shit, with TSA getting hit today and looks like they'll get another pasting tomorrow, he might just drive off a bridge!

    • That was a rip!

      Talk about classic. That one will stand the test of time. Don't I have to take a 12 panel drug test?

      It's not like he hasn't been asking for it.
      Val has been isolating himself a little bit recently.

      I'm telling you Wilson will be the only one on the board with Val.

    • don't forget to check the TSA board before the evening is over..

    • Stay Well.

      I'll hold down the fort.

    • Matrix, he ain't gonna be to happy about the last one I left for him on the TSA board. I'm leaving for a business trip for 10 days so I figured I'd let him stew for a bit.

      Keep the board solid!

      I'll try to check in.

    • Now thats good stuff. I can see Val and Wilson taking over for Cramer and his boy...

      That pre qualified comment he made was way out of line. Couldn't let that one get through without a rebuttal....

      As soon as you start to think you are BETTER than somebody else the shit will come back to haunt you.

    • I just saw your reply to Val's lame idea about pre-qualifing for the message board. Great stuff still catching my breath. Amazing, but truly consistent with many of his previous comments. We could have seen that one coming.

      He will ultimately be giving his dog SAM (or what was the soccer balls name in the the stranded movie with Tom Hanks)lectures on his investment prowess.

      It just came to me; Wilson! How appropriate. Wilson and Valuemonster talk investing your money!

      Wall Street Week w/Wilson and Valuemonster.

    • I promised not to respond to Val's misguided investing lessons on this board, but I didn't say anything about having fun on his TSA board...Hey what's good for the goose...

      I think Wed is the key day, as the news just hit, they will probably get whacked tomorrow. I'll be interested to see if they can comeback like DKS on the 2nd day after the announcement.

      I agree with the fraudulent crap, it's one thing to just come on board and say DKS sucks and have some facts to support your opinion. But to play like he bought DKS and then does a 360 faster than Tony Hawk...that's just being a total prick...no wonder Val likes him!

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