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Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. Message Board

  • m1ax m1ax Dec 1, 2003 4:14 PM Flag

    Too bad for Value

    Well, it's never fun to see somebody losing money. I don't enjoy it.

    Good luck Val!

    BTW, Walkets must have covered too. We did not hear from him for a few days.

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    • The primary reason is that both JDSU and SUNW were 'once in a lifetime events.' It's all well and said AFTER it happens, but it won't be repeated, and unless one was born under a lucky star to use these as a 'model' (or any tech/optical BS from '95-'00) will cause one to perpetually chase the pot of gold (alex, anyone?) at the end of the rainbow.

      It's a dangerous investment 'style' and IMHO downright deadly. Now if one did 'believe' in DKS, for example, and put in enough to retire on (and exited!), then great. Anything less breeds a bad habit of thinking it can be repeated anytime, anywhere. DKS is a mo'-'mo favorite, to think otherwise is foolhardy. You clearly have your head on straight by even considering a 'gap down.' Could happen......JMHO.....Good luck to all.....

    • Val, your opinion on avoiding SUN and JDSU as they climbed from 10 to 190 and back down confuses me, and I think our take on it confuses you as well. While I can't speak on behalf of Max, I know that if I bought either of those stocks it would be solely for capital appreciation...I'm in this to make money trading stocks. Your take seems to be more like Warren Buffet....sounds like you actually want to "own" these companies, in which case your value views would be prudent (lot of risk in a company you plan to hold long term.) But for someone looking to just buy, hold while it goes up, and sell at a sign of weakness, why would the above stock play be a bad decision? Risky yes, but not a bad play for a watchful eye.

    • so if the street expects (just random numbers) a $1.00 eps and TSA guides down to $.90 and then comes in at $.95 that's good?

      Not in this lifetime it ain't.

    • "jdsu and sunw were 2 stocks to AVOID HOLDING ON THE WAY DOWN, but to sit here and say buying them at $10 and selling at $190 was a bad're dumber than I ever thought you could be."

      -- Max, if you had even half the ability to understand..........What you just said is fine in 20/20 HINDSIGHT when all is SAID AND DONE. However, in 'real time' given the market caps that were achieved it's next to impossible for one to have bought so low and SOLD so high (and then the key -- do it again!). Most 'discovered' the story on the way up where there were no rational valuations (trust me, however, that many attempted), rode the momentum, didn't practise a lick of discipline, and then held on to oblivion (when I bought BTW) b/c they didn't understand basic valuation or didn't have the patience, or were greedy (or all three). Well they regretted their 'decisions' and are now occupying a mental-anguish wasteland. Remember, back then most were 'buying the dips' on every chance, so it's highly likely most got burned beyond recognition......

      TSA reported very nice combined revenue figures, mgmt. just din't hype them. Damn I like that. Put the #s out and let the market decide for itself......Underpromise and overdeliver, the way to go.....Of course the dollar is crashing and interest rates are likely to take a nasty spike upward, so if there is fault it's that they should have reported a week or two earlier.....Good luck to all......

    • I dont like Barrick....anyone with a significant hedge book is just throwing their money away, imo. Though Barrick is moving to eliminate theirs now, the fact that they have been hedging for two years with increasing gold prices just shows they do not believe in the gold and silver bull market.
      I dont own any companies with hedged positions, becasue I think that only a management which believes in the new bull market in metals will make the right decisions for shareholders when prices rise. I really like GG, they not only dont hedge, they withhold some of their production to wait for higher future prices.

      The HUI (unhedged gold miners index) is up far more than the XAU in the past couple years...

    • jdsu and sunw were 2 stocks to AVOID HOLDING ON THE WAY DOWN, but to sit here and say buying them at $10 and selling at $190 was a bad're dumber than I ever thought you could be.

      Don't need your insight, don't want your insight. Don't care what you do, say or think.

      Val you really do need to get over yourself.

      What happened to the "blow out numbers" you claimed TSA in the "combined results" were going to provide?

      Exactly Val...wrong again.

      Kiss it hard buddy.

    • Just a couple of the biggies -- Barrick, et al. I just wait for them to hit new lows, collect some dividends and wait for the 52-week or multi-year high...we are far from that now & yes I did exit a little too soon (never a big position for me).....Good luck to all......

    • Val, do you follow metals stocks at all, and if so, do you think they are currently in a momentum phase?

      Some would say so, though the recent gains could also be explained simply because they are leveraged to the underlying metals price and thus rise 3-5 times as fast.

      Some of them just seem to have gone vertical recently. I bought SSRI a month ago at 6.75 and its goes up 3-5% a day, every day. The shorts on that board are more a laughing stock than walkets. Its getting completely insane.


    • It doesn't surprise me at all that you do not understand. You just don't get it! Especially as shown by,

      "So I guess when stocks like jdsu, sunw were trading at $10 and people bought them all the way to $200, those that held on and sold at $190 were chastised by you for not selling earlier."

      -- JDSU and SUNW were two stocks to avoid like the plague during their mighty mo' momentum idiotic run(s). You seem totally incapable of letting some things just 'go by.' That's critical to investing! (i.e. patience and timing) Pick the valuation and pick the battle on YOUR terms, not an idiot mighty mo' momentum player's. Sometimes it's better to watch instead of 'forcing' one's participation. One needed extreme patience on both (and oh BTW I currently own some of each -- both at current gains, though I did sell some JDSU at almost a 3x gain). Currently have a decent % gain on SUNW, though I think she is worth $8. Look, I'll give you a little insight -- I'll be buying DKS at some point, but at that point you will be avoiding it like the plague, and you'll be on to your next corn stalk...Good luck to all.......

    • "pennies and mining stocks, who'd a figured?"

      I shoulda gone with penny miners. :p
      All the little canadian ones with a .V at the end...

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