I'm sick of the "Doomsday" opinions of some post-ers here. Although some are more intelligent than others, this negative attitude towards the markets is a waste of time. Yes, one day we will hit a top. Yes, at some point the market(s) will be overvalued. But as of yet that day is not here. You can throw all the numbers and reasons as to why the market is over-valued, or why DKS is, but you know what? Until the day comes when selling overcomes buying, neither the market nor DKS is over-valued. If DKS was over valued at 40, it would have sold. Over valued at 45? Would have sold. 50? You get the idea. And for all those critics concerned about the momentum of this stock and how it will all come down? Maybe you're right and one day a huge sell-off will start a run down, but that's the time when most of us longs get out. As time goes on our gains in DKS grow, so when a big sell-off starts we can take a hit and still have nice profits. In the meantime you can eat all your negative comments as DKS and the markets do well. Sorry I had to vent....I just don't deal well with people who bet against me.
"Why did we ever get off the gold standard in the first place? "
Well, its a long story, and one worth researching. Ultimately, it is the result of politicians who make campaign promises to spend on projects, and not to raise taxes, who then cannot maintain a balanced budget. The fed must inflate the currency as a result.
Eventually, there is too much paper currency, not enough gold backing it. In 1971, foreigners began demanding gold for dollars, and Nixon slammed shut the gold window...there followed a decade of high inflation and soaring gold prices. Finally confidence in the dollar was restored with a new fed chairman (Volcker), and a very tight money policy, with high interest rates. Over the course of the next 20 years, those conditions have now completely reversed, and we drown in an ocean of paper...
"There is roughtly 2 billion ounces of gold in the world, by many estimates I have seen. (Its in the ballpark). At 400$ an ounce that could back only 800 billion.
There is about 9 trillion in U.S. dollars alone just in cash and bank accounts, not even including stocks (which more than doubles it), and bonds (which increases it by a factor of 10). That also doesnt include all the other currencies in the world."
Alex....Scary figures. Thank you for the research. Question: Why did we ever get off the gold standard in the first place?
"..If no one wanted gold it would be worthless...""
Ok, well thats true for anything. However, I think Gold has qualities which make it such that people always want it....thats the nature of inherant value.
Re: how much gold in the world vs how much money. There is roughtly 2 billion ounces of gold in the world, by many estimates I have seen. (Its in the ballpark). At 400$ an ounce that could back only 800 billion.
There is about 9 trillion in U.S. dollars alone just in cash and bank accounts, not even including stocks (which more than doubles it), and bonds (which increases it by a factor of 10). That also doesnt include all the other currencies in the world.
Gold could not back the dollar except at sharply higher gold prices/lower dollar value.
Max, I agree about your point on cash. In my example cash and stock are one and the same. Your point on carting gold around in a wheelbarrow brings up why paper currency was created in the first place....(Since my discussions with Alex I've done some light research lol.) Paper currency, when backed by an equal worth in gold, is essentially the same...its just a representation of the physical gold. But now, since we are off the gold standard, who knows how much money out there is real or not (real being defined as backed by gold or something similar.) Alex, any possible insight as to how much gold there is in the world compared to the gross amount of money?
Alex, awesome reply. Although I still back my point about" ..If no one wanted gold it would be worthless..." but what you say about gold's qualities that make it suitable as a currency make perfect sense. I used the baseball card analogy to make a point, but you brought up very good reasons (ones I didn't think of) as to why a baseball card would not make a good currency. Thank you for the insight!
Alex- the way the market has acted lately...I've thrown most of history out the window...
So, you have zero confidence in our system? You are against our people, our country our president? (well, leave the last one out...)
Alex say it ain't so!
For the sake of the current state of the country, you might want to hope it doesnt. :)
In a way, betting on Gold is betting against everything...against your country, your president, the american people, agains stocks and bonds...it is the vote of a lack of confidence in the system.
The economic state which would facilitate a large rise in gold price is very scary....or at least, scary to all those without any gold.
To akcguy: there may eventually come a time when all gold is mined, but that would just mean that the value of gold increased slowly over time after that. It would require vastly improved mining technologies however, and really isnt of any concern for someone looking at the timescale of a lifetime.