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Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. Message Board

  • alex11235919 alex11235919 May 11, 2004 1:17 PM Flag

    XOCM / TA

    Look at XOCM go down in flames, right after some pretty basic technical analysis said it would!!

    I'm a beginner, and I couldve called this one! And I did!

    Val, how did I do that? Was it really luck that I picked an exact number, the breaking of which would cause a huge drop, and then it happened exactly that way? Wouldnt a stop loss at 4.80 have saved a lot? If you like the fundamentals, you could now buy it back in the low 3s, with 50% more shares!
    I didnt just say "its going down", I predicted a huge drop after a certain number was broken.

    Now, what are the odds you would be right with that call, made at random? Say: If stock XYZ goes under 8.70, it will fall another 20% at least, very quickly. Made at random, that call has a very low chance of coming true. How lucky did I have to get on this one, if TA really is worthless? I would say that there is a reason TA has so many adherents, and thats because it works.

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    • thanks Jiesen...I'm still on the sidelines with CKR also...sub $10 might tempt me...:)

    • yeah, nice call on the FPDI, max. I looked at it, but it's not my style. Too obscure and illiquid for me!

      Wish CKR had hit my 9.8 target- that would have been nice... it looks to be back on its way up to 11 again. Oh well, when XING hits 20, I'll sell some and buy CKR anyway.

    • FPDI running nice this morning...

    • "Also, it is important to note that often after a breakout, the price often moves back to test the point of the breakout. Thus, a good strategy could be to buy retests of a breakout level, with a stop under the breakout point."

      Hit the nail on the head here Alex...

      some folks use TA, some look for "value", while there are many methods of research, I feel the more methods that signal buy, the greater the chance for a successful investment...sort of a checks and balances system...

    • "The tricky part of course is knowing when "down" and "up" are. I know it sounds trite but it's better than setting yourself up for disappointment by playing the trendlines or tech indicators. "

      How do you propose to do that?

      This is exactly what technical analysis aims to do...find out what up and down are. TA doesnt try to pick the exact bottom or top (well, most forms of it dont, some do), it tries to find somehting relatively near the top and bottom, and ride the trend for awhile.

      "One fairly solid method of when to BUY, is simply on a sustained pickup in volume. "

      Volume analysis is yet another form of technical analysis.

      "One shouldnt forget that diversification is key when dealing with the small caps as well. "

      I agree. Diversification is part of good money management. Money management and Technical Analysis (and Fundamental Analysis) are not mutually exclusive. You can use TA or FA or both and be diversified as well...

      It sounds to me that you have had a bad experience with certain aspects of technical analysis. (Trendlines, etc). My take on trendlines is that they show significant levels, the breaking of which tells you that something important is going on, or that something has changed.

      Also, it is important to note that often after a breakout, the price often moves back to test the point of the breakout. Thus, a good strategy could be to buy retests of a breakout level, with a stop under the breaout point.

      Pattern failures are generally more important than patterns themselves. For example: If a certain pattern you are looking at predicts a big move if a resistance point is broken, and price move through the top of the trading range, and it initially breaks the point but then falls right back into the former trading range, it can be a sign that a sign that a deterioration is coming. That is, the pattern failure (breakout did not lead to sustainable price rise), predicts the opposite will now occur, and the price wil fall dramatically. Those who dont understand this, and buy the breakout and hold, thinking the price rise MUST come, and who dont use stop losses in case they are wrong, then end up holding all the way down, after the pattern failure. They then learn a painful lesson that Technical analysis doesnt work at all, and become disgusted with it.

      Technical analysis signals should be looked at as saying: This thing is what is most likely to happen / should happen. If it doesnt play out as expected, GET OUT!

      As an example: after an uptrend, a flag pattern is formed (price action is constrained within narrow trendlines for a few days/weeks, and those trendline slope opposite the former trend). The flag s a continuation pattern, predicting that the uptrend will continue, once the flag is broken to the upside.
      If however, it is broken significantly to the downside, it is a pattern failure, and you need to get out!

      These are just a few things I have read in TA books I have been studying. Trading the markes is very difficult, and I, and most others on these boards, are just beginners. Personally, I am not actively using TA to trade, nor do I trade much. I am using it to make paper trades, as a learning tool. Its better to practice for free, than to pay for your lessons, when you can trade on paper just as well! I think that anyone who wants to trade should do so on paper until they consistantly turn a profit. You can then experiment with whatever methods you want, in real time, without the risk.

    • what type of analysis does your experience tell you to use?

    • LOL. You don't know an opportunity when you see one, but I'll bite. When (if at all) do your burnt entrails spell a 'buy' on XOCM? This should be interesting.

      It's amazing how your comments are consistent, and so un-maci-like. BTW I've been buying (and non-longing a lot of stuff lately.......Good luck to all......

      • 3 Replies to valuemonster_jurel
      • "When (if at all) do your burnt entrails spell a 'buy' on XOCM? This should be interesting. "

        That is harder. If you forced me to guess, I would say around 2.60, since thats a 1.618 fibbonacci extension of the move from the double top (8.35), to the neckline/break point (4.80). Also, its a 1.618 extension from the level after the gap to the low at 3.00.

        I wish I was better at this...
        The H&S formation was clear enough for a newbie like me. ;) This bottom fishing is much harder. But then, this is a baseball game where there are no called strikes or balls. You can wait as long as you want for a pitch that you can handle, and then try to hit it out of the park. If you dont understand whats going on, you dont have to involve yourself.

        If you want to test me on the 2.60 pick, go ahead. Hey, this is fun! :) And I'm getting risk free practice!

      • mornin Valerie...You take the prize for bonehead of the month, and it's only the 12th!

        I mean come on Val, what kind of crap is that? You made a wrong call...Alex did some TA and was 100% correct. How about this...XOCM is a buy...well below where you bought it!

        Oh, and I love the way you call me Maci spelled it wrong over on the CKR board and got called on it by yesgal, now you spell it Maci all the time, so as not to look like YOIU MADE A MISTAKE.

        Now that's downright pathetic!

        Yeah I've been buying, selling, non-longing, longing, day trading, begging, and borrowing also...please if you have the balls, let us know what you are doing, so we can do the opposite.

        Later puss boy.

      • You don't have the balls to identify what your buy "stuff" is and for a very good reason - YOU�RE TRACK RECORD! By now your testicles have shrunken to the size of nano nuts. If I were you and invested using the monster method the last thing I would do is openly identify my HOT stocks.

        Buy a metal detector you'd have a better chance making money.


    • little reminder...

      Re:If I can Get in On The DKS Fund.Val
      by: valuemonster_jurel 04/02/04 08:18 pm
      Msg: 5685 of 5979

      The name, and I am currently long is XOCM......

      Was $5.37 then

      Is $3.25 now.

      Nice one who's the loser again? Which mirror should I look in?

37.42-0.46(-1.21%)Feb 10 4:00 PMEST