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Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. Message Board

  • snappyinvest snappyinvest Apr 29, 2005 10:37 AM Flag

    Why the slide?

    Seems to be sliding more than the other sporting goods stocks. Anyone have a theory?

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    • I know why and I visit the stores personally and ask around. Not many people are going in them. You guys don't realize how so many items are bought through the internet and small mom and pop wholesalers selling for 15% above cost on Ebay and all the other Cabelas and outlets. Sporting goods are in vast oversupply. Retailing in general is saturated, but then add in all the competition that has no physical presence..........drop shipping sent directly to the customers from the warehouses close to Pacific ports where it comes in from Asia. Dick's has to pay taxes on all this floor space. Ebay sellers pay no storage fees and discount the prices. There is little pricing power for name brand stuff because of counterfeits. You think Nike wear isn't popping up everywhere? All it is, is a logo patch on the front. I watched the whole camping supply area gutted and reduced to a few key items. They can barely sell anything. I'm sorry. I love the stores. I think they are doing the best they can because I looked around and you can't really improve anything with the layouts. It's the market, not the store. As we lapse into a recession with an inverted bond yield, this business model is greatly flawed. A very safe short in the long term, I'd get out on this spike up. I would not buy puts however because it might go down slow, which means you need to pay for time premium on the puts and that's a losing trade if the stock drifts down slow. I do think it will drift down slow and the whole stock market is having problems. When China delinks the yuan, the costs of Chinese made goods should go up between 10-20% within 2 months. Can those higher wholesale costs be passed on? I doubt it. There is no niche market with mass produced sporting goods. Inventory reduction sales just flood the market with more saturation, margins are slim. I am not a basher but you have to trade what you think can make a move and I'm short, hope you are too. It's going down faster than real estate, people need a place to live, they don't need paintball guns and $10 pairs of socks. I bought my kayak from here for $250 and the salesman was so desperate to make the sale. It sells at the other water sports store for $450. So they lost money on it and that's a desperation and I'm sorry but it's going under slow. You may not notice it. You may find stats to say differently but I know the real world and discretionary income is drying up from debt service. imo. The stats on consumer spending show it's another round of credit card spending and it won't last.

      And before you bash me for saying it like I see it. Give some data to reprove this.

      • 2 Replies to a2638105
      • It's also rife with credit card fraud and identity theft. It's not like Ebay stands behind the transaction with the phrases like - buyer beware and seller beware!

        Nice etail climate.

        I'll take the trip to the brick and motar you stick with the clip and frauder.


      • It was over shorted in the short term, baby short squeeze and they will re-enter as it rolls over. imo. Longs need to log profits before FNM and FRE need a bailout because Gm and F bond degrade is going to spread. As RE tops out the value of DKS stores is going to drop and you have a cause for it's own bond degrade aside of sales into a saturated market. And as someone mentioned. Women don't buy cosmetics from a store called "Dicks", soory kids. Come up with another plan. Previous stock performance is not indicative of future mania valuations.........

        The hanging man might pop a small white candle but in time, the slow time frame is down. The turn was about a month ago. This last big slide was bearish engulfing and it's a negative tone on it from now on with a broken trendline. You can trust that broken trendline for shorting the next minor top. imo. It's probably going to fallout into middle earth like MSO. You will never forget you read this. And you have been warned. You might get a lift from WMT going up but it's entering a down phase as well, especially as the yuan delinks. You better know why you're here. "The market only goes up". Yeah.

        The crash of 1932 is in slow motion right now, study your charts from 1928 through 1940.

    • I'm just pissed at myself for not adding more shares a few days ago...

      Heading to Charlotte to see the Wachovia tourney in the morning...hope the weather holds off...

      threw my first sub 80 round of this year out last week...

      Val just needs a good bitch slappin...

    • Easy. Gross overvaluation combined (maybe due to) mighty mo' momentum idiots who can't VALue squat. Heavy Insider Selling, plus this Co. being one of the PRIME beneficiaries of the March '03 insidious and invidious tax cut (& unconsionable low interest rate policy) by the Criminal & well, one gets complaceny and valuations that you see today. The stimulus is unwinding in a major way IMO. No one, and I mean NO ONE should be surprised at the price action. More to come IMHO.......Good luck to all.......

      • 1 Reply to valuemonster_jurel
      • When will Val learn...the only idiot on this board Val is you. DKS mighty momentum blew you clear out of the water. You have been saying the exact same things for years...while Dick's went from $8 to today's levels. Reading your latest post confirms just how pathetic your reasoning is.

        Dick's ran from (SA) $8 to $38 in 2 years. That's over a 400% increase. All the while you said DKS sucked, while others here, including myself, told you how wrong you were. I, for one, would gladly take a 400% return in 2 years. You obviously missed the boat, so you chose to criticize those of us that didn't miss the opportunity.

        Dick's insiders have been selling since the first day they had a chance to. Any normal person would surely take the chance to secure a nice nest egg for themselves if given the opportunity. DKS insiders did. I applaud them for it. For 2 years the pps rose in spite of this "heavy insider selling" Now all of a sudden it's the reason for the slide?

        If DKS was the only one pulling back at this time, some of your other reasoning may hold some merit. But let's look at the competition in the same time span shall we?

        DKS has slid from $38 to $31 over the last 6 months
        TSA slid from $30 to $26
        GMTN slid from $18 to $10
        CAB slid from $25 to $20

        Wal-mart slid from $55 to $48.

        So it's not like DKS is being singled out in this slide. Nothing goes up forever, and some are thankful for the opportunity to get in at a discounted price...

        Val is a leech, he likes to try to suck the life out of folks that have invested their hard earned money.

        He won't ever admit to another real time trade here, as last time he took a short position at $23, DKS rocketed north...we never heard of another trade here from Val, but he has claimed to "make some cash here"

        Draw your own conclusions, mine of Val is mural size...

        And what's with the God like statements...

        NO ONE and I mean NO ONE should be surprised....huh?

        The companies with the soundest fundamentals survive and prosper. Dick's is one of those companies.

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