"dont be fooled by the numbers. 40 plus store last year (10% of store base) just got the first comp under their belt."
And what of the good performance of the 90% seasoned over several years?
"in the northeast were the brand is heavily positioned, warm weather will impact the business"
In response, here is Ed Stack's take, extracted from the earnings conference call:
"Matt, we work with our partners as we have in the past with what we characterize as partnership orders. So, we have got a flow of product that we have scheduled to come in. So, we are not over-inventoried right now. If winter doesn’t come, we have got the ability to get canceled this product. We have it on the books. If it does come, we have the ability to bring that product in. We have got a couple of different trigger dates, one of them coming up right now after, the Monday after Thanksgiving, Monday, Tuesday, after Thanksgiving, and then, we will have another one later in the month of December. So, we have got some trigger points. We feel that we have got inventory available to us. If it gets cold and this business takes off, we have got the ability to grab that product. And if it stays similar to last year, we have got the ability to move that product off or cancel that product, and we will end up with no meaningful difference in inventory this year versus last year."
Going back to the IPO, #@%$& Sporting Goods has never blamed bad weather for seasonal underperformance. I doubt they will start now.
All retailers "have the ability to grab product or cancel product", its called writing a PO or requesting a RTV. If you really follow this retailer like I do (as well as 6 others) DKS stores are sitting on carry over merchandise from 2011 in cold weather at the store level. Black friday promo at DKS internet was 40% off of carryover outerwear. If you walk any DKS store, its additional POS off of 2011 cold weather markdowns. You can cancel all of the goods you want, but its not going to help sales. also if you look at black friday, this year vs last yr not a very compelling story to drive business into stores at 12am. I think Macys, Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Kohls, and Toy R Us were the winners driving traffic through effective marketing tools...not just opening up at 12am