Thanks for the post. Cannacord's estimation is based on a conservative valuation that does not adequately reflect ME turbulence far into the future and accelerating oil demand from developing countries, e.g., China, India and Russia.... And it does not reflect that more oil formations keep getting discovered while recovery rates are improving at reducing costs from ongoing frac innovations.
But let's work with $40 as current value. At current $20 trading price, NOG might on dips get to $18 briefly or 10% lower for downside. At $40, that's of course a double. So, the risk reward strongly favors a long position.
In fact, by trading so far below value, NOG becomes ripe for buyout from a magor or a hedge fund.