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Allied Nevada Gold ┼×irket Message Board

  • benya789 benya789 Nov 8, 2012 9:35 PM Flag

    ANV as a takeover target

    Ok. This is wild speculation on my part but I believe ANV might become a take over target of company like China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd., a publicly traded company that is the overseas flagship vehicle of China National Gold, the only gold producer in China directly controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council.

    So, China Gold International has access to very deep pockets, pockets with tonnes of US$. China Gold has growing production and would see ANV as ultra attractive - great location, excellent management, huge resources, major project execution excellence, organic production growth, etc. Just on an potential basis, ANV has shown they can profitably produce gold from a low grade deposit and have demonstrated they can execute a major capex upgrade without any major problems. In fact ANV is advancing the project schedule while holding the budget in check. Unheard of these days. What was the worst in the last couple of quarters -- 3rd party carbon processor bailed, they had to stock pile carbon and truck to a new processor and oh yes, they had to take a hit on a grade adjustment in the carbon stock pile which translated into a 5,000 oz hit.. Contrast that the super sized problems say ABX is having in Chile (although that is an order of magnitude larger project) where the project is behind schedule and the budget has doubled and is still increasing. Ugh.

    ANV is about the most attractive gold junior growth story out. And when the expansion plans are complete they will be a mid cap producer. What better place for some surplus Chinese treasury bonds? Put ANV with China Gold and you are getting close to a mid tier producer at current production levels.

    I would not be surprised to see a take over bid from someone on ANV at a nice premium. This company is just too good to ignore. The only company I like better is Sandstorm, a gold streaming company but that is a different play.

    Anyways, just wild speculation on my part but I'd love to hear what others think on the likelyhood of someone wanting a piece of ANV. I just don't see anything bad about ANV so contrary opinions would be most welcome.

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    • I'm waiting for benevolent extra terrestrials to take over the mines and move ore like it was all free fall under anti-gravity. I mean how beat up can it get before SOMEONE finally brings the glass of clear water and learns how to say thankyou for all those years of shooting russian missiles out of the sky. And all the crazy people they abducted so far, it's just not enough but are the benevolent grays being compensated for the energy needed to get the loonies out of earth's gravitational pull? Let's hope they accept fiat for their services.

      Just hang on for the space flight back to reality in ANV stock, going to a new dimension after the earthlings find out the air in the vaults wasn't worth the armed guards to protect it.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I'm long ANV. However, in recent months I've been surprised by continued, heavy insider selling and no insider buying. Any explanation??? Not exactly a vote of confidence by management.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Thoughts on price needed to accomplish?

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to smokerunman
      • Speculating wildly on already wild speculation, I'd have to say that 20% to 30% take over premiums are typical. In ANV's case the premium would have to be enough to make the current management team happy as an acquiring company would want to keep the current management team in tact. So a 30% premium or more would not be a surprise.

        When you look at the producing gold miners out there there really isn't all that much great managment operating in great locations on deposits with huge development potential. ANV is a rare gem. I am hard pressed to find a better combination. Sure, someone like a Gran Colombia might be interesting as it is so very cheap but it has operational issues, namely extremely high per ounce production cost, which account for its cheapness IMO. Others like Great Basin Gold looked extremely cheap a few months ago but they are in bankrupcy court now. No, give me a good deposit in Nevada being run by a team that knows how to mine.