New to Allied. Can someone tell why it's gone down so much?
Usually I post on the Comstock Mining (LODE) message board, but I thought I'd come over here today. I notice that LODE and ANV are both down a lot in the past 3 months, but why is ANV down?
3 months ago it was $40 and now it's $25. From what i can tell ANV has had a GREAT past 3 months according to press releases. Are there problems with the company I don't know of? Or is this just the market in general in your opinion?
Anyone who owns or is thinking of owing should listen to the Jan.18 webcast that will be available until 1 Feb on the link from ANV investor/events website. Management admitted to optimistic guidance for Q4 and outlined reasons for the shortfall with solutions and a timeline for achieving them. One or two underachieving quarter don’t make this a bad company or bad management. Hycroft is still a great mine with low operating costs and significant production gains soon to occur. There will be significant cash flow in 2013 and beyond from the recent big capital investments. Investors wanting instant gratification can’t stomach below guidance performance but anyone who has a longer term view may see this as an opportunity.
Weaker than expected metallurgy. Weaker than expected production in most recent quarter. New 43-101 to be published and who knows if any surprises will be revealed once that comes out. Overlaying that, insiders were bailing out of their holdings by the millions leading up to the above, so there's also a Q about mgmt's credibility. Wouldn't be surprised to see some shareholder lawsuits filed.
I don't take positions in companies with credibility issues no matter how low their SP gets taken down. Just one of my investing principles.
Management sold around 1 million shares, and almost all of them were sold by Carl Pescio, who according to ANV, "has been a geologist and prospector for 33 years and has assembled the largest private mineral claim package in Nevada during the past 15 years, which was purchased by Allied Nevada in connection with its recent start as a new, independent company."
I see someone selling 20,000 shares back in Nov at much higher prices. Where is all the "bailing out of their holdings by the millions"? The CEO owns over 4 million shares alone. This is not a company where the leaders have no stake. Their personal interest are heavily inline with the shareholders' interests.
Last quarter wasn't so great, it was below guidance, but this is way overdone.
The share price has been underperforming since a harsh BMO analysis came out. Potential problems due to the metallurgy and the need for an autoclave and external capacity to process the sulfides, but nothing that wasn't known before.
I already had a big position and I'm buying hand over fist at these levels. If it turns out that there is indeed a REASON why this stock is underperforming so badly, I'll just liquidate it and move on.
I'm no expert, but per press release on 4q production, they missed prior guidance for quarter due to overloading leach pad and overly optimistic yield assumptions from this pad. They have stated it will most likely be temporary.