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Allied Nevada Gold Corp. Message Board

  • mbaveritas mbaveritas Apr 5, 2013 11:00 AM Flag

    Optionality

    Full transparency, I have a sizable ANV stake that I've bought down to these levels. Even in my most conservative, worst case scenario 10yr DCF analysis, this company is worth at least $1.7B NPV. This assumes production well under guidance and continually declining Ag/Au prices. Given that, the recent price action makes me think:

    #1 - Someone knows something that I don't. With the recent CEO firing, I suspect there was a production slip-up - but even that would not justify the recent price action. I have a sick feeling about this.

    #2 - The stock is being heavily shorted (last measure was ~7% float) and there is massive institutional selling (perhaps fund redemptions). If this is the case, ANV will overcorrect to the upside.

    All of this will be clarified if we see some insider buying. I am watching the SEC site closely. Good luck to us bulls.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • If memory serves me, last week the state legislature passed a bill to change current taxes which the voters will decide on in 2014. I would guess a tax between 100 and 300 dollars per ounce might be considered.

      Why else would ANV drop so precipitously? But no one mentions the tax.

    • is ANV able to post a profit with current metal prices? I don't think so

    • A third possibility is that some fund or company is accumulating a large position using short periods of selling to lower price in a spooked market (spooked by gold price decline and CEO replacement). Continued decline today in face of rising gold price could be explained by insider tax sales plus negative sentiment building on itself among short-time traders. But who knows for sure? Investor Relations sounded as puzzled as I am (see my post below).

    • I too have accumulated a sizable position (started buying about $23). I spoke with Tracey Thom (ANV Investor Relations) today about the recent price action. She stated that she believed it was due to an unfortunate confluence of events, e.g. the release of their CEO (due to three quarters of missing production guidance), their reduced guidance for 2013 and today's SEC report of insider sales (tax offset). She stated that they are confident of meeting current 2013 guidance and that all expansion project targets are proceeding as forecast and per budget. I am curious, though, why insiders aren't buying at these levels.

 
ANV
0.85530.0000(0.00%)Mar 9 4:02 PMEDT