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Allied Nevada Gold ┼×irket Message Board

  • iwynne2002 iwynne2002 Aug 2, 2013 8:11 PM Flag

    Catastrophic Earnings Expected?

    How else do you explain today's 6% drop on no news? You would have thought that all of the negatives were already priced in but as soon as you start thinking that way we get another price smash. It's just amazing how badly this stock has gotten punished over the past 8 months.

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    • Also, they have not yet announced the actual earnings release date.

    • If you look at a 5 year plot of ANV versus GDX or most miners, you see that ANV is trading like a highly levered version. GDX was down more than 2%, so an even worse performance is to be expected.

      That being said, last earnings saw a 30% pop. Given how much ground was lost since then, I really wouldn't be surprised to see a price above the 10.75 issuance price if earnings aren't horrendous or if there is some good guidance regarding Hycroft

      • 1 Reply to sou1ec
      • Also, if you just look at the past 5 days:
        ANV: -15.3%
        GLD: -1.9%
        SLV: -1.0%
        GDX: -7.2%
        GDXJ: -8.6
        CDE: -4.7%

        So silver actually fell less than gold this week, and ANV (like CDE) is more oriented toward silver than gold. Surprisingly, ANV fell even more than GDXJ, an index of junior miners which includes many development-stage mines (i.e. speculative).

        As to the explanation, there's always a chance of the old "somebody knows something" (that the rest don't know). But other possibilities include that someone owned ANV on margin and was forced to sell. Or that there were people with stop-loss orders which kept getting triggered the lower ANV went. And then there's always the short-sellers piling on to a momentum situation (although personally I consider that to be the least likely).

        Bottom line, if gold and silver start moving up, ANV is likely to move up much faster, IMO. Consider that on July 19 of this year, ANV closed at $6.88, SLV closed at $18.88, while GLD closed at $125.11. SLV is up 1.3% and GLD is up 1.0% since that day. But ANV is now down 14.1% over that same time period. Something doesn't add up. Hopefully for ANV shareholders it means that the share price is undervalue.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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